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Pastimes : Can the average (?) moron beat the averages? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: quasi-geezer who wrote (1148)6/28/2003 2:15:51 PM
From: Steve Felix  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 1660
 
Dude, at the bottom of the page is a box asking if you would
recommend this article to a friend. I had to check 1, absolutely not.
The dude is whack from an investment standpoint imho. Once again
we get back to thinking of owning the market. I don't want to do that.

As an example, let's go back 500 trading days. That would be June 27th
2001. The Nasdaq closed at 2074.74. Friday it closed at 1625.28. Without
getting picky the Naz is down 20% in this timeframe. So the dude figures
that investors are out 20% since then. That is rediculous unless you bought
QQQ and sat on it.

Since stocks must be down 20% in that time frame, I will run a tough scan.
Sure to not turn up any stocks. I will require all of the stocks to be between
$4 and $20 five hundred trading days ago ( June 27,2001 ). Then require them
to have been higher EVERY 100 days since then. So if on day 300 the stock
was $8 and on day 200 it was $7.99 it will not qualify even though it may have
gone to $10 on day 199. Surely with the market being down over the last 500
days I won't come up with any stocks that meet these requirements.

The "market" and individual stocks are not tied to each other.

APSG,5.1796875,17.25,06/27/2001,APPLIED SIGNAL TECHNOLOGY COM
BKMU,13.6484375,32.4589996,06/27/2001,BANK MUT CORP COM
BRKL,6.40146303,14.2399998,06/26/2001,BROOKLINE BANCORP INC DEL COM
CCE,16.21875,18.6800003,06/27/2001,COCA COLA ENTERPRISES INC COM
CENT,7.6640625,23.5,06/27/2001,CENTRAL GARDEN & PET CO COM
CHC,14.9375,18.8500004,06/27/2001,CHARTER MUN MTG ACCEP CO SH BEN INT
CPV,14.1796875,27.1000004,06/27/2001,CORRECTIONAL PPTYS TR COM
CVBF,12.0799999,20.0900002,06/27/2001,CVB FINL CORP COM
EXAC,5.5234375,15.1000004,06/27/2001,EXACTECH INC COM
FBC,4.98784733,24.7099991,06/27/2001,FLAGSTAR BANCORP INC COM
FCBP,19,30.7409992,06/27/2001,FIRST CMNTY BANCORP CALIF COM
FCN,8.97569466,24.8999996,06/27/2001,FTI CONSULTING INC COM
FNF,16.6528931,31.1900005,06/27/2001,FIDELITY NAT FINL CORP COM
GTIV,5.0311327,9.05000019,06/27/2001,GENTIVA HEALTH SERVICES INC COM
HRZB,8.19999981,16.5699997,06/27/2001,HORIZON FINL CORP WASH COM
JAH,5.828125,27.3999996,06/27/2001,JARDEN CORP COM
JOSB,5.7265625,35,06/27/2001,JOS A BANK CLOTHIERS INC COM
NFI,7.796875,59.7999992,06/27/2001,NOVASTAR FINL INC COM
ODFL,6.5,21.4699993,06/27/2001,OLD DOMINION FGHT LINES INC COM
OFC,9.9765625,16.8199997,06/27/2001,CORPORATE OFFICE PPTYS TR COM
OFG,12.579546,25.1000004,06/27/2001,ORIENTAL FINL GROUP INC COM
PERY,7.875,19.9200001,06/27/2001,ELLIS PERRY INTL INC COM
POG,15.9649992,32.0999985,06/27/2001,PATINA OIL & GAS CORP COM
QSII,11.65625,28.1599998,06/27/2001,QUALITY SYS INC COM
SFFS,4.02950716,13.25,06/27/2001,SOUND FED BANCORP INC COM
SFNT,9.578125,27.9799995,06/27/2001,SAFENET INC COM
TRP,12.453125,17.6700001,06/27/2001,TRANSCANADA CORP COM
TSCO,8.08984375,47.4900017,06/27/2001,TRACTOR SUPPLY CO COM
UGI,17.619791,31.6299992,06/27/2001,UGI CORP NEW COM
UMPQ,11.84375,18.3700008,06/27/2001,UMPQUA HLDGS CORP COM
WGBC,5.37578535,16.9300003,06/27/2001,WILLOW GROVE BANCORP INC NEW COM
WSFS,16.8671875,38.3400002,06/27/2001,WSFS FINL CORP COM
XTO,11.0917969,20.2000008,06/27/2001,XTO ENERGY CORP COM

12 out of the 33 are banks or financial service companies. Doesn't everyone
understand that only tech stocks make these kind of moves. hee hee

Everyone is so busy looking for the stock that will double on Monday that they
miss out on the real moves, trading in and out.

Look at FBC. A freaking bank. From $4.99 to $24.71. That includes two splits,
a 3 for 2 and a 2 for 1 and their dividend just went from .05 to .10 a quarter.

Let's see, 4.99 x 1000 shares, 3 for 2 = 1500 shares, 2 for 1 = 3000 shares.
Original $4990.00 is now 3000 x 24.71 = 74,130.00 AND you get paid .40 a
year per share or $1200.

Stocks moving up, bought at support, using patience. Add that to your book of
famous quotes. lol

Jesse Livermore had one that fits, although I don't remember it exactly. Something
like ' the big money is not made in the trading, but in the sitting'.