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Strategies & Market Trends : Heinz Blasnik- Views You Can Use -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GraceZ who wrote (2821)	6/28/2003 2:26:08 PM
From: LLCF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4907

<C&I and commersh just keeps dropping into the abyss there is no demand for funds. > Yes know the situation for C&I... what about the rest? < This is telling me the bond market sees a much different picture than one of a Fed lowering short interest rates into a demand regime. > Agreed, although in the last quarter I believe the demand for long end is as much risk arb and speculators assuming the Fed will start to buy, as it is people thinking they are a good investment. <If the Fed is pushing against where the market wants to take interest rates who is it that is pushing against the Fed? > What are you talking about? I'm saying the fed has been finding bidders for money, you're saying they aren't, that they have no takers. <Your prejudice prevents you from seeing the facts. It doesn't matter how much evidence I present here, you guys are going to believe what you need to believe to support your particular prejudice> Of course we all have our prejudices on most topics in life but in this case you are misinterpreting what the futures market is and what it is telling you. It's not a matter of prejudice... it's actually a matter of ATTACHMENT to that prejudice. To me this is a small mechanistic side issue and not one I would find hard to abandon. It's just not important in itself to my investing outlook, just a small part of the picture. You, on the other hand, are usually very attached to EVERY opinion and post you put forward, so it becomes about you rather than investing or general knowlege. If you have other evidence that the market is leading the fed lower I'd love to see it. The futures market you presented is simply following sentiment about future rate cuts, period... who wouldn't be willing to whack futures out at X % knowing the fed would cut rates? Futures markets are simply contracts, and in this case they are FAR LESS liquid than the real forward interbank markets. I presented weekly data in may showing buying at the feds offer.... you have stated the opposite, but presented nothing but one portion [C&I]. If you can show me that the fed isn't doing any business because it's funds rates are higher than the market that's fine. That's not what I'm reading... although it has certainly happend... AND the fed is getting plenty of help by foreign central banks buying securities to try and hold the dollar up. I wonder if one should be adding all these purchases up?? DAK