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Strategies & Market Trends : Trading with Jerry Olson(OJ) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jerry Olson who wrote (1099)	7/7/2003 12:39:49 PM
From: Jerry Olson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1617

here's my newsletter from 2 weeks ago..nothing really has changed with the P&F indicators..still bullish but very streached right now...we will pay the piper...on down the road...use stops..get ready with a paln..etc... ============================================================ JERRY OLSON'S "POINT" OF VIEW NEWSLETTER DATED 22ND JUNE 2003 FIRST SIGNS OF "SOME" TROUBLE Hello out there my trading buddies. Ah it's good to be alive in soggy old Philadelphia...Ok enough already? gee whiz..Did I say something? Rain Rain go away, please come back another day, already yet<g>! Good grief this is really getting nuts folks! well enough of that stuff..On to much more important things????...Oh yeah the markets right<VBG>? I began to see the first signs of trouble last week for 2 very important reasons. First the markets sold "good news" first time thats happened in eons. Second we had some technical breakdowns in the Bio Tech Index and a reversal down in the NDX Bullish Percent(BP) chart. As you all know by now we trade perception and sentiment. It moves markets like no other indicators. At the bottom in March everyone was a sour as a lemon on everything. Then everyone became sweet as sugar on the future out look of the earnings and the economy. So once again we see the over indulgence of the speculators moving coast to coast from oversold and sour to overbought and sweeter than all get out... Once I see the street begin to sell good news thats the first warning signs of trouble ahead. When sentiment changes then supply overcomes demand. Thats exactly what is about to happen to Wall Street and this Market. While every single pundit out there is telling people to INVEST, I am telling you all NOT TO INVEST. We are not quite at "THE" top in my opinion(IMO). I think we'll get one more pop to the upside in the next 2 weeks and finish this dazzling rally off with a flourish. Then, I'd say head for the hills as fast as you can. I am telling you all please get your act together. You need a strong exit strategy and you need to formulate it now. I only wish I was able to tell all of America this is coming with a vengeance... I have carefully checked and rechecked all the indexes and the P&F indicators and things are "ok" right here today. I'll be watching and reporting a blow by blow description intraday over the next 2-3 weeks as to what is going on as it happens...I want you all to be ready. As ready as me of course. The first signs of trouble will be the BP's for the NYSE Hi Lo Indicator and the Percent of stocks above their 10 week moving averages. If they BOTH reverse down together we take immediate evasive action with no looking back. The next event we'll be looking for is the reversal down of the BP OPTI this index is all the optionable stocks in both the NYSE and OTC. If that turns down we short this market with a vengeance. I mean heavy, into position type shorts. You all know the drill. As of right now I have set alerts on all the indexes and the futures and other things I watch to better guide us over the next few weeks..I would like to participate in this blow off rally "if" in fact it does happen, cause it's usually one whale of a pop. It traps the shorts as the bulls come in here with both fists buying everything in site for all their worth..And then? the trap is set on the other side of the street, because when the market begins to fall the bulls exit in a frenzy not seen before as they realize they have been "HAD" and then puke out all those stocks that are falling like stones that they bought at the top. Not a pretty site unless you're short. We will make that trade as we see this begin to occur. It's a given folks. So here's the current game plan. I am not speculating because it ridiculous to predict this market. I am reading the indicators the bullish percents and the charts..Things are OK right here. This week is a crucial week for turning UP or not...I have the numbers and so will you...This market must rally right now out of the gate next week and take out the old highs for this to be a correct call..I ask you to be smart, focused and think on your feet..Take profits too soon at all costs, Daytrade a bit more, scalp and make a days pay..Right now I am underwater in 6 option positions and will try to extricate myself out of them if I'm right. Like I've been saying, I always use options instead of heavy cash outlays at or nearing market tops...You can just see the topping action here as stocks rally up hard only to be sold into. So take the money and run. Buying climaxes are everywhere each and everyday. Do NOT lose more than 20% of your option cash position ever...I am already below that like a dummy. In fact all the real good money has been made from the March lows. This is where the crumbs are left for the people that have no clue. The Wizards of Fall Street will help them lose all their money very soon. We have the 2 day FOMC the 24th and 25th I'm just looking for .25 basis point cut and back to neutral with a nice phrase like "the economy is looking better" "and we feel the need for speed is over for now, but that we will be vigilent". Next is a slew of important eco reports starting with Consumer Confidence on Tues, Durable orders for May, Existing Home sales & New Home sales all on Weds the 25th..We have the ongoing Bio Tech Conference this week into the 25th and expect a pop in that sector. There's much more in the coming week i'll post it at the end of this newsletter...ok let's please check the all important indexes... =============================================================================================== DJIA---LAST WEEK WE DID A 3 BOX REVERSAL BACK DOWN AT 9200 NO BIG DEAL FOLKS. 9350 IS THE THREE BOX REVERSAL BACK UP (3BXRVUP), THEN 9400 IS THE BREAKOUT(B/O) BUY SIGNAL I AM LOOKING FOR. IF THIS INDEX PRINTS 9150 FIRST THEN IT STAYS IN O'S AND CONTINUES TO MOVE LOWER. THERE IS "NO" TECHNICAL DAMAGE TO THIS CHART. SO WE WATCH AND WAIT HERE.... COMPX---VERY INTERESTING CHART OF THE NAZ---BROKE A BULLISH TRIANGLE TO THE "UPSIDE" AND TOUCHED 1680. A DOUBLE TOP(DT) THEN REVERSED BACK DOWN TO 1640...WATCH ANY BREAK OF 1620 1ST SIGN OF TROUBLE, OR WATCH FOR THE MOVE BACK UP HERE FIRST AT 1670 THEN THE BIG B/O AT 1690...CHART IS FINE AS WINE AT THE MOMENT WITH NO TROUBLE IN THE OTCBP..IT'S CURRENTLY AT 68.58% AND HAS NOT BUDGED, IT WOULD TAKE A LOT OF "SELL SIGNALS" ON TECH STOCKS TO REVERSE THIS ONE DOWN.. BTW THE 20 EMA ON THE DAILY CANDLE CHART IS 1620... SOX---RECENTLY THIS INDEX TOPPED OUT ON A MAJOR DOJI AROUND JUNE 8TH, AND HAS SOLD OFF ALL THE WAY DOWN TO 365 FROM THAT TOP AT 412. THE SOX BROKE A DB AT 365 AND THEN RALLIED UP TO MAKE A LOWER TOP AT 385. IT REVERSED DOWN LAST WEEK TO 370..IT'S SET UP TO DO EITHER A RALLY UP AND DO A B/O PLAY AT 390, OR IT CAN FAIL AND BREAKDOWN AGAIN AT 355..WE ARE RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS SET UP..JUST SET ALERTS AND WATCH THE ACTION..THE BPSEMI IS AT 77% DOWN FROM 78% AND WOULD NEED A PRINT OF 72% TO REVERSE DOWN..IT WOULD TAKE A LOT OF SEMIS TO BREAK DOUBLE BOTTOMS AND GIVE SELL SIGNALS. IF YOU LOOK AT THE DCC CHART IT PULLED BACK TO THE RISING 40 EMA AND SHOULD BOUNCE FROM HERE... NDX---THE BP ON THE NDX REVERSED DOWN FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE MARCH. THIS INDEX HIT 90% IT'S NOW AT 82%. THE BIO TECHS DID NOT HELP THIS INDEX...IT MADE A LOWER TOP AND IS NOW SITTING AT 1220. 1250 REVERSES IT UP AGAIN, 1210 KEEPS IT MOVING LOWER. 1270 IS A LARGE B/O BUY SIGNAL. 1180 IS NOTHING BUT SERIOUS TROUBLE. MSFT IS THE #1 WEIGHTED STOCK ON THIS INDEX. BTK---THEY REALLY HIT THIS INDEX HARD, ALMOST 10%+ OFF THE HIGHS. IT RAN ALL THE WAY UP TO 510 IN A SPECTACULAR BLAST OFF FROM THE MARCH LOWS. AND THEY JUST NEEDED TO TAKE PROFITS..PERIOD..AN INTERESTING SET UP IS HERE RIGHT NOW...WE RETRACED BACK DOWN 38.2% LOW TO HIGHS LAST WEEK AT 440..AND MORE IMPORTANTLY I THINK WHAT WITH THE 3 BXRVUP ON FRIDAY WE ARE SET UP FOR ANOTHER POP HERE TO THE UPSIDE. WE DO HAVE THAT BIO TECH CONFERENCE SO WE COULD GET SOME BIG NEWS COMING OUT OF THAT SITUATION. LOOK FOR A POTENTIAL RUN TO 475/480 ANOTHER LOWER TOP AREA. NOW IF IT BREAKS 435 THATS REAL TROUBLE..I MEAN BIG...THE BP BIOM IS AT 62.34 DOWN FROM 76% IT MOVED DOWN FAST... BKX---THIS INDEX IS STILL HOLDING WELL SO FAR. A TOP PRINT OF 895 RIGHT AT MY TARGET. IT PULLED BACK(PB) TO 870 LAST WEEK, NOT MUCH FOLKS. 885 IS THE REVERSAL..850 IS REAL TROUBLE...LOOKS OK ON THE DCC CHART TOO. SPX---BROKE A TRIPLE TOP AT 1010 BUT COULD NOT HOLD IT..990 IS THE 3BXREVDN. 970 IS A LARGE BREAKDOWN, WHILE 1020 A MAJOR BREAKOUT. THE BP SPX IS AT 81.40% THE TOP WAS 82..76 IS THE 3 BXREVDN..SO WE ARE HOLDING WELL ON MOST OF THE MAJORS HERE... SPU3--THE FUTURES...BROKE A LARGE TRIPLE TOP AT 1012 IT THEN SOLD OFF LAST WEEK TO REMOVE THE STEAM UP THERE IN THE RARIFIED AIR. SITTING AT 992...1004 THE 3BXRVUP, 980 IS A BAD BREAKDOWN..WATCHING THIS ALL IMPORTANT INDICATOR/INDEX WE TRUST AND FOLLOW. THE CHART IS ACTUALLY VERY SOLID. MEANING BULLISH.. NQU3---CRITICAL TRIANGLE HERE..SIMPLE TO READ TOO.. 1260 THE BIG B/O 1190 THE BIG BREAKDOWN..WATCH IT CAREFULLY...EVERYTING ELSE IS NOISE... VIX---THIS INDEX IMO IS READY THE COLLAPSE..IT'S SITTING AT A TRIPLE BOTTOM AND AS WE SOLD OFF IT DID NOT RALLY 1 OUNCE..A PRINT OF 20 WILL PLUNGE THIS TO 16 THE BOTTOM OF THE 10 WEEK TRADING BAND FAST, AND AT THE SAME TIME THE MARKETS SHOULD RALLY PRETTY STRONG TOO.. I WAS READING OVER THE WEEKEND.. THAT PUT OPTIONS ARE THE HEAVIEST ON THE QQQ'S IN YEARS AS WELL AS THE SHORT INTEREST IS RISING AT AND ALARMING RATE, MORE FUEL FOR THIS "POTENTIAL" LAST GASP RALLY..IN A CONTRARIAN WAY... SO THATS IT FOR THE BP'S AND INDEXES YOU NEED TO SET ALERTS AND SEE IF THEY MOVE IN TANDEM WITH EACH OTHER CREATING A POWERFUL FORCE ONE WAY OR THE OTHER..I LIKE IT HIGHER FOR 1-2 WEEKS..THEN? CRASH AND BURN TIME...I REMIND YOU THIS COULD JUST BREAKDOWN TOO FOLKS...BE ULTRA COOL EARLY THIS WEEK INTO THE FED MEETING...OK LET'S DO THE STOCKS WE KNOW AND LOVE TO TRADE...BIO'S WILL BE IN PLAY THIS WEEK FOR SURE... =============================================================================================== ICOS---WHAT WITH ALL THE SELLING IN THIS STOCK AND THE BIO TECHS IT ONLY RETRACED TO THE RISING 20 EMA DCC CHART?...BROKE A DOUBLE BOTTOM(DB) AT 38..BUT THIS COULD BE A "SHAKEOUT PATTERN"...IT PRESENTS AT THE CONFERENCE NEXT WEEK...40.25 THE BTL(BUY TRIGGER LONG) WAIT FOR IT----38.75 THE SST---I LIKE IT LONG AND THE 3BXRVUP IS 41. MRK---BROKE OUT OF MAJOR R(RESISTANCE) AT 61 AND RAN UP NICELY TO A 100% PROJECTION TARGET OF 63...IT'S MOVING SIDEWAYS CONSOLIDATING..I THINK IT GOES A LOT HIGHER HERE...63.45 THE BTL---62.15 THE SST... GILD---EXCELLENT RISK REWARD HERE AT THESE LOWERED LEVELS...PULLED BACK NICELY. TOPPED OUT AT 57 HIT 51 LAST WEEK AND BOUNCED HAS GOOD S(SUPPORT) AT 50..YOUR STOP IS 49...A PREFECT DCC CHART AS WELL PROJECTS "MARKET WILLING" TO LOWER MID 60'S...TRY THE JULY/AUG 50 CALLS...54.35 THE BTL---53.15 THE SST--- PDLI---THIS ONE PUNCHED THRU THE 20 EMA DCC BUT FORMED A SMALL HAMMER FRIDAY...AT THE 38.2% RETRACE DOWN FROM THE MARCH LOWS TO JUNE HIGHS..AN EXCELLENT PB...16.30 THE BTL---15.15 THE SST--PRESENTS NEXT WEEK...SHOULD BOUNCE... TARO--- ONE OF MY FAVORITE CHARTS...ON THE DAILY CANDLE CHART(DCC) IT HIT THE 20 EMA PERFECTLY AND THEN BUYERS SHOWED UP ON FRIDAY IT "HAMMERED" BEAUTIFULLY...IT'S SET UP TO POP HERE..HAD A SOLID PB ON P&F TOO...53.80 THE BTL---52.60 THE SST--USE THE JULY/AUG 50 CALLS...IT'S IN THE DRUG SECTOR LIKE MRK. GERN---EXCELLENT SIDEWAYS BASE FOR 1 SOLID YEAR SINCE JULY OF 2002..THEN A POP OUT OF THIS BASE TO TOUCH 9.50..IT'S PULLED BACK TO 7.00, AND THE 38.2% RETRACE ALONG WITH TOUCHING THE 20 EMA DCC TOO..THIS LITTLE GUY IS READY TO BOUNCE I OWN IT TOO...61.8% PROJECTION IS 9.50, THE 100% IS AT 11.50 SURE WOULD LOVE TO SEE THAT<VBG>...7.50 THE BTL---6.70 THE SST... DNA---THE BIG BOY ON THE BLOCK, KEEPS ON TICKING TOO..POWERFUL DEALS OUT THERE FOR THIS ONE FOLKS...75.05 THE BTL---73.75 THE SST... AMGN---PULLED BACK FOR PROFIT TAKING DURING THAT SLAM IN THE BIO TECHS..HIT THE 20 EMA AND THEN ON FRIDAY HAMMERED WITH VOLUME TO THE UPSIDE...LOVE THAT MOVE...65.60 THE BTL---64.40 THE SST---USE STOPS HERE AS THE INDEX REVERSED BACK DOWN FOR ALL BIO TECHS...NO EXCEPTIONS... LLY---SENSATIONAL DRUG STOCK CHART...JUST REVERSED BACK DOWN 3 BOXES AND SHOWS A BULLFLAG ON THE DCC..THIS THING IS SET UP SWEET AS SUGAR FOR A MOVE HIGHER...I HAVE THE 61.8% PROJECTION AT 75...JULY 65'S LOOK NICE OR YOU COULD GO OUT TO OCT...MAYBE THE AUG OPTIONS WILL OPEN THIS WEEK..CHECK IT OUT..69.15 THE BTL---67.75 THE SST...WWW.CBOE.COM WILL SHOW ALL OPTIONS AMZN---AS STRONG AS ANY STOCK OUT THERE..I AM LONG THE JULY 30'S AND WILL HOLD HERE..I OWN THEM AT 5.70 & 6.00 BUCKS..RS IS STILL STRONG HERE AND THE SECTOR IS HOLDING WELL SO FAR...I AM LOOKING FOR A RUN UP INTO EARNINGS...35.60 THE BTL---34.45 THE SST...HELD THE RISING 20 EMA ALL THE WAY... EBAY---THIS STOCK HAS SELLERS AT 102-103 AREA SO FAR..MARKET WILLING I AM LOOKING FOR A LARGE B/O AS I OWN THE JULY 95 CALLS AT 8.90...AT 104 THATS A TRIPLE TOP B/O WITH A NICE UPSIDE TARGET...102.80 THE BTL---101.20 THE SST...FRIDAY WAS WEIRD ACTION ON THIS ONE... SNDK---I OWN THE JULY 35 CALLS HERE AND IT LOOKS BAD FOR THESE..BARRON'S BASHED THIS STOCK..SO I WILL ASSUME A MAJOR HIT MONDAY OF 2+ POINTS...38.80 THE BTL...37.40 THE SST---UNDERWATER FOR SURE HERE... CTX---ANOTHER BEAUTY..NO STOP AND DID NOT WATCH IT CLOSELY ENOUGH..ALWAYS TAKE THE 20% HIT ON ALL OPTIONS AND MOVE ON..YOU'LL NEVER REGRET IT I PROMISE..ANYWAY WE HAVE HOME SALES ON TUES SO WE'LL SEE...I OWN THESE AT 7.40 AND THEY LOOK DOA...ALL THE HOMEBUILDERS GOT WHACKED HARD..THEY MIGHT BOUNCE...80.25 THE BTL---76.75 THE SST---DOES NOT LOOK TOO HEALTHY...BUT SITTING ON THE 20 EMA...<GULP> BRCM---FINALLY DID A 3 BXRVDOWN TO 25..BUT THIS STOCK IS VERY STRONG...MOVING SIDEWAYS THRU THIS SELLOFF OR PB...26.50 THE BTL---25.25 THE SST... KLAC---THIS STOCK HAS PULLED BACK TO THE B/O LINE AT 46+ ON FRIDAY...BASING HERE ON THE DCC CHART...LET'S SEE IF THE SOX CAN MOVE UP NEXT WEEK...47.80 THE BTL---46.55 THE SST--- QLGC---4 CONSECUTIVE HIGHER LOWS..THE CHART IS STILL VERY SOLID..NO TROUBLE HERE YET...49.10 THE BTL----47.95 THE SST--- MRVL---TRYING TO B/O HERE AT 35 THE DT BUY SIGNAL...DOUBLE NARROW RANGE BARS THURS AND FRIDAY...35 IS THE 61.8% PROJECTION WITH 38.25 THE 100%...33.60 THE BTL---32.50 THE SST... USAI---SAILING ALONG WITH THE INET 3 AMIGOS...EXPE & ROOM...SITTING AT THE 20 EMA DCC...38.25 THE BTL---36.80 THE SST...STRONG STOCK IN A TOUGH SECTOR... NXTL---OOH LA LA..WHAT A PLAY LAST WEEK HUH FOLKS<G>?..NICE B/O ON HEAVY VOLUME A CLASSIC TRADE FOR SURE..AND MANY OF YOU TOOK FULL ADVANTAGE OF THAT MOVE..GREAT...18.20 THE BTL---17.20 THE SST... DISH---THIS STOCK IS STRAIGHT UP SINCE FEB OF THIS YEAR WITHOUT A CORRECTION..UH OH?..IT'S STILL IN PLAY EACH WEEK..ON GOOD VOLUME...PROJECTS TO 42...WHEW!...COURSE THE MARKET HAS TO GO UP TOO<VBG>...36.10 THE BTL---34.90 THE SST-- ============================================================================================= OK HEADSUP...THE PASSWORD FOR THIS WEEK IS alanfomc...got that? oneword lowercase..We'll Give Alan & Co. a shot to cut hard......alanfomc... NEXT FOR THOSE PEOPLE THAT TOOK MY LAST CLASS THAT MISSED SOME TIME YOU'LL MAKE IT UP STARTING THIS WEEK ON TUES AT 12.30...FOR THOSE CLASS MEMBERS THAT HAVE FINISHED MY LAST CLASS YOU NEED TO SIGN UP USING PAYPAL AS YOUR MONTH IS WELL OVER THE LIMITS...YOU ALREADY HAD THE 1 MONTH ROOM AND NEWSLETTER AS PART OF THE PACKAGE... NEW CLASS MEMBERS...WE'LL START TUES, AND I HAVE 1 SPOT STILL OPEN...JUST E-MAIL ME...IF INTERESTED HERE'S THE ECONOMIC REPORTS DUE OUT THIS WEEK TOO ============================================================================================== Indicator Date Time Estimate Previous Actual Country Consumer Confidence (Jun) 06/24/2003 10:00AM 85.0 83.8 US FOMC Meeting (1st of 2-day)`` 06/24/2003 2:15PM N/A N/A US Durable Orders (May) 06/25/2003 8:30AM 1.0% -2.4% US Existing Home Sales (May) 06/25/2003 10:00AM 5.80M 5.84M US New Home Sales (May) 06/25/2003 10:00AM 1030K 1028K US FOMC Meeting (2nd of 2-day) 06/25/2003 2:15PM N/A N/A US Chain Deflator-Final (Q1) 06/26/2003 8:30AM 2.5% 2.5% US GDP-Final (Q1) 06/26/2003 8:30AM 1.9% 1.9% US Initial Claims (06/21) 06/26/2003 8:30AM N/A N/A US Help-Wanted Index (May) 06/26/2003 10:00AM 35 35 US FOMC Minutes 06/26/2003 2:00PM N/A N/A US Personal Income (May) 06/27/2003 8:30AM 0.3% 0.0% US Personal Spending (May) 06/27/2003 8:30AM 0.2% -0.1% US Mich Sentiment-Rev. (Jun)` 06/27/2003 9:45AM 88.0 87.2 US OK THATS IT FOR THIS WEEK...I CAN SAY WITH ALL HONESTY IT'S GOING TO BE ONE WILD WEEK WITH THE BULLS AND BEARS FIGHTING IT OUT..BEST OF LUCK TO US ALL WARMEST REGARDS JERRY jerry olson www.buyitbuyitsellitsellit.com jerry.olson@verizon.net

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