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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (10370)	6/30/2003 12:44:22 PM
From: Return to Sender	Respond to of 95530

>Maybe today's "semi stock price" action is a precursor to this summer - starting out quite strong, but then fading as the day progresses.< Not so fast there my friend! I've gone long on a daytrade of AMAT at 15.95 so I want the idea of a fading market to disappear completely right now. <gg> I won't be holding it too long by the looks of things right now. Seriously, it makes no sense at all to me that AMD can warn and INTC has business accelerating? Oh sure they might be getting even more of what AMD is not but is business accelerating? Regardless the comments were at best a backhanded compliment. If the rest of the industry is slowing then how long can INTC be gaining business? Something very strange about that upgrade and you hit the nail on the head. RtS

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (10370)	6/30/2003 9:36:26 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95530

Semiconductor Equipment . . . Adams Harkness reiterated a Buy on Cree. Price target $25. The company has filed a motion to dismiss the lawsuit filed by former chairman Eric Hunter, and firm believes that as the dust settles the overhang will be removed and CREE's valuation will rise; in addition, firm thinks the co is seeing good demand for its LED products used in cell phones, auto backlighting, and indoor/outdoor signs. Semiconductors . . . Samsung licensed Rambus' Yellowstone technology for its next generation memory chips. Smith Barney upgraded Intel to Outperform from In-Line, citing the following factors: 1) firm thinks 2nd quarter and 3rd quarter estimates appear achievable, 2) the current environment is allowing INTC to slow price decreases and thereby increase profitability, 3) management is increasingly focused upon improving ROIC, and 4) the company is beginning to accelerate just as the rest of the chip industry is decelerating (seasonally and Year over Year). The firm raised target to $23 from $20. Texas Instruments intends to build a $3 billion manufacturing plant in Dallas. The chipmaker has scheduled a news conference with Texas Gov. Rick Perry for this afternoon. Marvell was upped to Outperform from Neutral at GKM. National Semi was cut to In-Line at Smith Barney and cuts target to $20 from $22 based on their belief that NSM's restructuring benefits are largely embedded in the stock price at current levels. In addition, firm is concerned about NSM's 30% exposure to wireless given excess handsets in Asia and the possible component inventory build due to SARS, and also notes that the co has sizeable exposure to the low-end analog segment, which has been facing tough price competition from TXN. LSI Logic expects sequential revenue growth of 9 percent for the second quarter from its first-quarter total of $372.8 million, a forecast that's at the high end of its previously disclosed range. The chip technology firm now sees a pro forma loss for the quarter of 6 to 8 cents per share, 4 cents better than its prior outlook. Twelve analysts are currently looking for a loss of 11 cents per share in the period, on average. LSI attributed the improved pro forma view to better than expected gross margins and the benefits of its expense control efforts. On a GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) basis, the company sees a loss of 43 to 50 cents per share, wider than its previous prediction for a loss of 23 to 31 cents per share. This change reflects an increase in special items to be recorded in the quarter due to the company's restructuring program. The company now expects special items to run from $140 million to $160 million for the period, up from its original estimate of $50 million to $70 million. LSI also said it plans to sell its manufacturing facility in Tsukuba, Japan. Texas Instruments risk rating goes to High from Medium at Smith Barney due to a substantial miss in company's 2nd quarter wireless chip business. Smith Barney believes TXN unintentionally built up internal inventories in 2nd quarter. Looking out slightly further, firm expects co' earnings to decline sequentially in 4th quarter versus current consensus showing a sequential increase. Broadcom and National Semi settle patent litigation and agreed to a comprehensive patent cross-license. The SIA reported that semiconductor sales for May were up 6.6% quarter/quarter and 11.3% year/year. On a 3-month rolling average basis, sales increased 2% Month/Month and almost 10% Year/Year. According to Needham, the SIA report was most positive for PLDs/standard cell, analog, wired communications, and graphics chips. The data was generally negative for SRAM, DSPs, and microprocessors. Firm believes the relatively strong performance for May supports its thesis of industry growth this year a couple of percentage points above the SIA forecast update from June 11 calling for 10.1% growth. The SIA revised its April worldwide shipments estimate by $340 million—most of which came from analog and DSP shipments and in Asia Pacific. The SIA cited an error in calculating April shipments by one of its members as the reason for the large revision. Given the product categories affected, probably TI is the 'unnamed' company. This revision plus others like it in the past is one reason why we have traditionally been reticent to publish a monthly forecast. Shipments in the Americas accelerated modestly to -7% Year over Year in May from -9% year over year in April, while all other regions decelerated: Asia Pacific to +12% Year over Year in May from +14% Year over Year in April, Japan from to +26% Year over Year in May from +29% Year over Year in April, and Europe to +9% Year over Year in May from +11% Year over Year in April. On a month-over- month basis, shipments in Europe dropped -3% Month over Month, while all other regions were up 3 to 4% Month over Month. Overall semiconductor pricing improved to +6% Year over Year in May from +3% Year over Year in April due to easy comparisons (particularly in optoelectronics). Integrated Circuit ASPs (which is what is sold by most companies we follow), although still down yoy, improved slightly to -3% Year over Year in May from -5% Year over Year in April. On a segment basis, most segments decelerated on a year-over-year basis with the exceptions being Microprocessors, rising from to +2% Year over Year in May from +1% Year over Year in April, compared to our estimate of -2% yoy, while DRAM improved from -18% to -11% in May, compared to our -14% estimate. DRAM bit growth was relatively unchanged at +61% yoy compared to +59% yoy in April. Relative strength in these two segments suggest that the PC end-market is doing relatively better than the rest of the end-markets. As expected DSP slowed significantly from +43% year over year to +32% in May. DSP shipments for April were revised up in the May report by about $120 million (to $423 million), which raised April year-over-year growth from +31% previously to +43%. Analog was the other segment where April numbers were revised up by about $180 million (to $1.99 billion), raising April year-over-year growth from +9% year over year to +13% year over year. In May, Analog shipments decelerated nonetheless to 10% year over year. Importantly, the SIA reports numbers on sell-in, not upon sell-through basis and therefore does not provide a good read on what is actually happening to inventories or in orders. Based on a variety of data points, we continue to believe that orders are slowing for most of our companies. robblack.com

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (10370)	7/2/2003 11:12:50 AM
From: Kirk ©	Respond to of 95530

Their prediction seems to be that INTC is going to do rather well while the rest of the "chip industry" will "decelerate". Maybe today's "semi stock price" action is a precursor to this summer - starting out quite strong, but then fading as the day progresses. Intel has made a HUGE investment in CapX and new business (wireless and fiber optics) with their cash while the market has been in a bear. I believe they will start to see returns from this investment with any recovery as their cost structure from larger wafers should take business from others. This should spur more CapX sales... but we shall see. Kirk