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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: slacker711 who wrote (129981)	6/30/2003 7:12:22 PM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

Fruit Soup: Marketshare by Technology Slacker, << Here are some round numbers off the top of my head that should be in the ballpark. >> Methinks, you may have blended some fruit soup, ole buddy. <g> This is the first year I recall that Qualcomm has ever come back and positively adjusted handset numbers after their usual skate by in their first CQ1 CC. In the prior year they used Strategy Analytics numbers (the highest reported by anyone for CDMA). The year before that they used MicroLogic's (the highest reported by anyone for CDMA). In 2001 Matt Hoffman credited CDMA with 18.5% (sell-thru) but that was against Nokia's reported sell-thru number which was lower than Strategy Analytics or Gartner. Since Qualcomm adjusted up this year from reported license revenues I take the numbers to reflect sell-in reasonably accurately, and its the first year in awhile I have been comfortable with their reported number. In a perfect world sell-thru equals sell-in, but this is not a perfect world and we know that sell-in last year exceeded sell-thru but whether that is more true of CDMA than other techbologies is open to debate. The 405 million number you are using for 2002 is Nokia's sell-thru number. Several other houses use that number, but it originated from Nokia. If you happen to accept Per Lindberg of Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein's (DWK) numbers for 2002 sell-in (whih i think are high) than CDMA handset sales (sell-in) were 87M (18.1%) out of 480 million. If you balance Qualcomm's 87 million against Gartner Dataquest's 437 million sell-thru number (which when they reported at the end of 2002 excluded iDEN - now they are including iDEN) you get 19.9% CDMA, but again that is sell-in at least it appears to me to be) against sell-thru. Too many numbers floating around. I happen to take Gartner Dataquest's numbers, the research methodology that backs it up, and their delayed reporting, as the most credible in the industry. Perhaps you favor someone else, but apples are never oranges, so we need to apply one set of numbers against a corresponding set of numbers, perhaps averaging same, or you have fruit soup as an end result. All FWIW & JMHO. - Eric -

To: slacker711 who wrote (129981)	6/30/2003 7:23:53 PM
From: Jim Mullens	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

Slacker, thanks for sharing your CDMA handset market share data. You may be correct, but I don’t recall hearing/seeing a specific WCDMA estimate from Qualcomm. They presented two charts during their Spring meeting that depicted wireless handset growth but I can only guess at the WCDMA figures from the chart as no actual figures are shown. One chart (Shosteck, March 2003) reflects total handset sales of 447M for 2004 with CDMA (Including WCDMA) at 29% yielding 130 units. Of that total, CDMA2000 is 111 and IS95 and WCDMA comprise the balance of 19 units with WCDMA about 1/3 of the 19. The other chart is strictly a WCDMA handset forecast thru 2006 showing each of five consults forecasts by year. My guesses for 2004 WCDMA handset sales from reading that chart- Yankee -12/02…….50M Shosteck-10/02……35 EMC-3/03…………35 Ovum- 12/02………20 Gartner-1/03……….12 For 2006 the WCDMA sales range was from 61 to 164. Using a midpoint of about 110 WCDMA units plus Shosteck’s (more conservative) 2006 CDMA2000 estimate of 145M units and total units of 465M, total CDMA would equal 255M of the total or 55%. One can see that Qualcomm’s addressable market is clearly expanding and these numbers don’t even include sales into the GSM/GPRS market with the MSM6300 chipset. FWIW I recently completed a 2004 handset sales estimate (rough) for Qualcomm’s addressable market and posted such on Investors Hub. Summary below- investorshub.com ……………………..2003……….2004 CDMA………………104.5……….121 WCDMA………………1.5…………15 GSM (MSM6300)…......0.0…………10 Total…………………106.0……….146 Would you (anyone) care to venture an “educated” guess of Qualcomm’s chipset market share going forward for each CDMA2000 and WCDMA? jim

To: slacker711 who wrote (129981)	6/30/2003 8:02:31 PM
From: Skeeter Bug	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

slacker, thanks for stepping up to the plate! numbers can be debated forever, however, you put something on the table. what is the history of these predictors? i recall in 2000 someone had a billion cdma cell phones being sold every year. well, that was phony - are these guys the same guys that told us it was raining while peeing on our leg? i think the numbers look aggressive, but at least we've left the billions of units a year nonsense behind! -lol-