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To: JohnM who wrote (2973)6/30/2003 10:30:17 PM
From: LindyBill  Respond to of 793917
 
More 'gloom and doom' from the 'Boston Globe'

Still reeling, Democrats struggle over '04 strategy

By Anne E. Kornblut, Globe Staff, 6/29/2003

PHOENIX -- After the Democrats suffered a wave of defeats in the 2002 midterm elections, party officials rebounded with a promise to sharpen their strategy and emerge reinvigorated well ahead of the 2004 campaign.

More than six months later, however, as Republicans sweep up tens of millions in donations nationwide, many Democratic officials and party faithful say they are still struggling to regain their footing, and are daunted by the next task: Trying to unseat President Bush and win back control of at least one house of Congress.

''There's no question that there is deep doom and gloom, among both congressional Democrats that I've talked to and national Democrats,'' said Phil Clapp, director of the National Environmental Trust, which works closely with Democrats. ''They have to get over it, or they won't have a chance in 2004.''

Last week, the House and Senate passed a sweeping Medicare drug coverage bill, which Bush is likely to sign -- stealing thunder from the Democrats on one of their core issues. This weekend, as Democratic candidates gathered in Phoenix to address Hispanic officials at an annual conference, some Democrats admitted they are facing a real fight for the Latino vote, a growing electorate that has voted heavily Democratic in the past but is now a major target of the White House.

''The problem with the Democratic Party is it has taken the Hispanic vote for granted,'' Governor Bill Richardson of New Mexico, the highest-ranking elected Hispanic official in the country, said yesterday. He also said that, more broadly, ''the Democratic Party has had a problem articulating an economic message to all voters,'' and that the party must work to explain to voters why its policies are better for Hispanics and the rest of the electorate.

Latinos are the fastest-growing group of voters in the country. Since winning 35 percent of the Hispanic vote in 2000 -- the highest percentage of any Republican since Ronald Reagan in 1984 -- Bush has been courting Latinos aggressively, and White House strategists hope to win more than 40 percent in 2004. ''The issue is an erosion,'' Richardson said. If the Democrats were to dip down to winning 59 percent of the Hispanic vote ''in a presidential election, it could be a deciding factor.''

Senior White House political strategist Karl Rove is aware of that dynamic, and it is part of his far-reaching strategy to build a lasting Republican coalition in the 2004 election. Bush administration officials expect a close election, but they hope to make gains in Democratic territory that last into future decades, by making inroads in the Latino community, among Catholics, and with labor unions and Jewish voters.

Bush is on course to have $200 million in his reelection coffer by the end of this year; in a single swing through California on Friday, he was expected to raise $5 million, about as much as each of the top Democratic candidates was able to raise in the three-month period between April and June. Despite predictions that Bush would suffer because of a faltering economy, his approval ratings are holding steady, and his emphasis on the war in Iraq and terrorism have drowned out most Democratic attempts to return the focus to the domestic agenda.

Privately, Democratic strategists say they swing between moments of despair -- especially as they watch their nine presidential candidates battle to define the party's ideology -- and cautious hope. ''We are near rock bottom,'' one strategist in Washington said. ''The good news is, there's nowhere to go but up.''

There are reasons to believe that Democratic morale is excessively low -- including recent polls that show that despite Bush's approval ratings, no more than half the country, and perhaps as little as 45 percent of the country, would vote to reelect him in 2004. The economy has not rebounded, and George H. W. Bush had similar ratings to his son's at this point in his presidency before losing to Bill Clinton.

At the same time, Democrats are seeking to recover lost ground, considering the formation of a cable television network that would counter the powerful core of conservative talk-show hosts, and creating ambitious new think tanks, including one being formed in Washington by former White House chief of staff John Podesta, who expects to operate a $10 million annual budget.

The 2002 midterm elections prompted a split within the party, as some argued that Democrats had grown too similar to Republicans, too afraid to stake out their own positions, and had abandoned their liberal roots. Moderate Democrats, by contrast, argued that they had brought the party back to life in the 1990s after years of liberal stagnation under Reagan and the elder President Bush, and that in order to win important swing states Democrats should embrace the centrist shift.

The ideological debate has grown more intense with the surge of Howard Dean, the former governor of Vermont and a relative unknown who appears to have captured some support from disaffected Democrats with his populist, blunt style.

''I share some of the frustration -- not because of where Bush is, or all the money he's raising, but because I want a little more of Harry Truman in the party,'' said former Illinois senator Paul Simon. ''I want us to stand up and be willing to take unpopular stands.''

He continued: ''For that reason, Howard Dean, who comes out of nowhere, almost -- with all due respect to Vermont -- he has picked up a lot of steam because there is a feeling that here is a guy who really is fighting for things.''

Several Democratic operatives, however, said that Dean is spoiling the party's chances of picking a nominee who is capable of beating Bush. ''There's clear frustration, but I also think there's a determination'' within the party to find a nominee who can win, said Rich Masters, a consultant who until recently served as communications director for Senator Mary Landrieu, Democrat of Louisiana. The problem with the current style among Democrats, Masters said, is that ''the more we scream and yell, the louder, the hotter the rhetoric gets about George W. Bush, that doesn't help us. We need to articulate a message, and we haven't done that yet.''

Speaking to participants at the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials yesterday, two Democratic candidates said that ''electability'' is as important as ideology. ''We've got to win,'' Representative Richard A. Gephardt of Missouri said. Gesturing to the five other candidates who participated in the forum, Gephardt said, ''We've got to take this country back.''

Senator John F. Kerry of Massachusetts said in his closing remarks, ''Most of all, we need a nominee who can win.'' And in a jab at Dean and others who have accused centrists of mimicking Bush -- a jab that indicated the ongoing struggle for the ideological soul of the party -- Kerry said, ''The one thing we don't need or need to be is a second Republican Party.''

boston.com



To: JohnM who wrote (2973)7/1/2003 5:13:34 AM
From: LindyBill  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 793917
 
Heavy on the law involved, but interesting. Will Gay Marriage cause a backlash? TWT

DAILY EXPRESS
Sex Appeal
by Jeffrey Rosen
Only at TNR Online
Post date: 06.30.03

"Is Lawrence worse than Roe?" read an e-mail message sent by Crisis, the conservative Catholic journal, after the Supreme Court last week struck down every sodomy law in America. And the answer, for liberal and conservative defenders of judicial restraint, should be unequivocal. Yes, as a constitutional matter, Lawrence is worse than Roe. The Court could have struck down Texas's sodomy law on the narrow grounds that it violated the equal protection of the laws by forbidding homosexual but not heterosexual sodomy. But instead the Court embraced and extended a sweeping and amorphous right to sexual liberty that is even harder to locate in the text or history of the Constitution than the right of reproductive autonomy that the Court discovered in Roe. By resurrecting an unprincipled and unconvincing constitutional methodology, the Court will energize the conservatives who have lost the culture wars, and will allow them to cast themselves as judicial martyrs rather than political losers.

The more modest case against the Texas sodomy law was set out by Justice Sandra Day O'Connor in her concurring opinion, and it goes something like this: Texas is one of only four states that bans sodomy for homosexuals but not heterosexuals. A state should be free to criminalize acts that it considers immoral, but a state may not ban those acts only when committed by certain classes of people. The only reason to ban sodomy for homosexuals but not heterosexuals, O'Connor suggested, could be "a bare ... desire to harm a politically unpopular group," and the Court has consistently held that this is not a legitimate state interest. The constitutional guarantee of equality prohibits laws passed for the sole purpose of signaling that some groups of people are inferior to others--there is no caste system in America--and for this reason, Texas's anti-sodomy law had to fall. An opinion striking down the Texas law on this ground would have left the states free to ban sodomy, or other sexual practices of which they disapproved, such as bestiality or prostitution, as long as they do so in an even-handed way.

But in his opinion for the Court, Justice Anthony Kennedy preferred a far more grandiose approach. He said the case "involves the liberty of the person both in its spatial and more transcendent dimensions." He then made clear how transcendent he considered these dimensions by quoting his own paean to liberty from the case that reaffirmed Roe in 1992, a dictum that Justice Scalia called the "sweet-mystery-of-life passage": "At the heart of liberty is the right to define one's own concept of existence, of meaning, of the universe, and of the mystery of human life." This passage has been properly ridiculed by lower court judges for the past decade because of its melodramatic implications. If carried to its logical conclusion, it seems to read the libertarian harm principle of John Stuart Mill into the Constitution, preventing the state from forbidding individuals from engaging in behavior that the majority considers immoral but that poses no harm to others. But in Lawrence, Kennedy, joined by four of his colleagues, made clear that a majority of the Rehnquist Court does in fact mean to read the "sweet mystery" passage for all that it's worth. He said that states and courts should not attempt to "define the meaning of the [intimate sexual] relationship or to set its boundaries absent injury to a person or abuse of an institution the law protects." As Scalia correctly observes, "This effectively decrees the end of all morals legislation."

The reason liberal and conservative defenders of judicial restraint have long been skeptical of the Court's increasingly abstract odes to sexual autonomy is that their constitutional roots are so flimsy. The first references to the idea that the Constitution protects private decisions regarding marriage and family life occurred in the 1920s, when the Court struck down nativist state laws prohibiting the teaching of foreign languages. But those cases were better defended in terms of the First Amendment right of free expression and had nothing to do with sexual freedom. In 1967, the Court struck down a Connecticut law forbidding the use of contraceptives; but despite its infamous references to "penumbras, formed by emanations" from the Bill of Rights, it failed to identify a constitutional provision that protected a broad right of personal autonomy; instead it emphasized the special status of the marital bedroom and pointed to the Third and Fourth Amendments, which protect the spatial privacy of the home. In Roe, the right to privacy was unmasked as a right of sexual autonomy, but the Court never explained where the right came from--it simply asserted that the liberty protected by the Constitution was "broad enough to encompass a woman's decision whether or not to terminate her pregnancy," citing the Court's traditional concern with the freedom of marriage and family life. Finally, in reaffirming Roe, the Court abandoned all pretense of protecting traditional relationships of marriage and the family and, with the "sweet-mystery" passage, seemed to suggest that any restrictions on sexual freedom were constitutionally suspicious. And now comes Lawrence to confirm, by judicial fiat, Scalia's wildest fears.

Kennedy's opinion relies heavily on the idea of a growing national consensus against legislating on matters of morality. As evidence, he cites state legislatures decisions to repeal sodomy laws over the course of the last twenty years. But it's not at all clear from that record that such a consensus exists: In 1986, 25 states banned sodomy in some form; and today 13 continue to do so. Between 1986 and today, only 4 sodomy laws were repealed by state legislatures and 12 were struck down by state courts--often under the same expansive privacy reasoning that the Supreme Court failed to defend in Lawrence. It's true that only four states today single out same-sex conduct, as Texas does. But the decision to single out homosexual, but not heterosexual sodomy, wasn't made in a vacuum; it reflects an attempt to satisfy the demands of an overly activist Supreme Court. The reason that the Texas legislature, in 1973, amended its sodomy laws to prohibit homosexual but not heterosexual sodomy was because the Supreme Court said in 1972 that states couldn't discriminate between married and unmarried people in regulating sexual activity.

Obviously, there has been a sea change in public attitudes toward sexual behavior since the 1960s, which is why the right lost the culture wars and only a minority of moral conservatives, such as Justice Scalia, will lament the end of sodomy laws today. As Karlyn Bowman of the American Enterprise Institute notes in a recent study of public attitudes about homosexuality, in 1977 forty-three percent of respondents told Gallup interviewers that homosexual relations between consenting adults should be legal, while sixty percent gave that response in 2003. Nevertheless, the public as a whole has hardly embraced Millian liberalism in all of its dimensions. As Bowman notes, "in 1973, when the National Opinion Research Center at the University of Chicago first asked people about sexual relations between two adults of the same sex, 73 percent described them as 'always wrong' and another 7 percent as 'almost always wrong.' When the organization last asked the question in 2002, 53 percent called them always wrong and 5 percent almost always wrong." Although judicial activism may be justified when the Court acts to bring one or two state outliers into synch with an overwhelming national consensus in public opinion, it turns out that there is no national consensus that states may not legislate on the basis of moral disapproval. It's easy to ridicule Scalia for defending the state's ability to criminalize fornication, masturbation, bestiality, prostitution, nude dancing, and obscenity: Who can be against any of these innocent pleasures in the age of Eminem? But absent an overwhelming national consensus against these laws, Saclia's constitutional question to his colleagues--why are the states all of a sudden prohibited from banning consensual sexual activity on moral grounds?--deserves an answer. Unfortunately, they give none.

The most unsettling implication of the Court's expansive new right of sexual autonomy relates to the question of gay marriage. Justice O'Connor tried to preserve laws limiting marriage to opposite sex couples by announcing tersely that "preserving the traditional institution of marriage" is a legitimate state interest. But as Justice Scalia was quick to observe, "'preserving the traditional institution of marriage' is just a kinder way of describing the State's moral disapproval of same-sex couples." Since allowing homosexuals to marry has no impact at all on the willingness of heterosexuals to marry, it's hard to think of a reason for courts to avoid extending the Court's new right to "define the meaning" of intimate relations to include a right of all people to marry, regardless of their sex. Of course, the arguments on behalf of a judicially created right of gay marriage--whether located in the right to equality or the right to privacy--are not frivolous. But they are also not constitutionally restrained--not well rooted, that is, in text, history, or tradition. For the Court so glibly to put its finger on the scales of favoring a judicially created right to gay marriage, in a case where this sort of activism was unnecessary, seems cavalier in the extreme. And, as a pragmatic matter, defenders of equal civil rights for gays and lesbians will rue the day that lower courts begin to follow the example of their Canadian counterparts and recognize a right of gay marriage on a national scale. For the political backlash against a judicially created right to gay marriage would be so swift and dramatic--at least in the immediate future--that it would set back the cause of gay and lesbian equality rather than advancing it.

Indeed, the grandiosity of the Lawrence decision reveals how little liberal and conservative justices have learned about the hazards of activism in the 30 years since Roe was decided. There were moments on the Rehnquist Court when it seemed as if the justices had gotten out of the business of reading broad rights of personal autonomy into the Constitution--most notably in the right to die case in 1997, where they unanimously refused to create a broad right of physician-assisted suicide. But in a single, unnecessarily dramatic gesture, those bipartisan murmurings of restraint went out the window. The fact that the Court is likely to get away with its activism--as a political matter, few Americans will march to the barricades on behalf of sodomy laws--can't undo the damage of another self-inflicted wound. For when the next confirmation conflagration comes, the conservative minority that has lost the culture war in the political arena will be able to attack the Supreme Court for having turned them into victims, rather than being forced to acknowledge their failure to convince their fellow citizens of the rightness of their cause. "The Court has taken sides in the culture wars," Scalia charged in a foreshadowing of the conservative attacks to come. Absent Lawrence's muddled reasoning, on the other hand, the truth would have been impossible for conservatives to ignore: Far from taking sides in the culture wars, the Court only ratified a national consensus in favor of sexual autonomy after it was too obvious to be denied.

Next to the hyperbole of Kennedy and Scalia, the most convincing opinions in Lawrence were the most modest. In the same way that O'Connor offered the case for striking down the Texas law in the narrowest possible terms, so Justice Thomas gave us a dissent of eloquent simplicity. "The law before the Court today "is ... uncommonly silly," he said, quoting Justice Stewart's dissent in the contraceptives case. "If I were a member of the Texas Legislature, I would vote to repeal it." Nevertheless, Thomas said he was unable to find in the Constitution a "general right of privacy," or, as the Court called it "the liberty of the person both in its spatial and more transcendent dimensions." The fact that the majority didn't bother to respond to Thomas shows how little the judicial activists on the left and the right have learned from the errors of Roe. Their lack of self discipline will only fan the flames of the confirmation battles to come, whether they occur this week, next year, or in the years to come.
Jeffrey Rosen is the legal affairs editor at TNR.
tnr.com



To: JohnM who wrote (2973)7/1/2003 6:26:50 AM
From: LindyBill  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 793917
 
I "Clipped" this section of an article from Reason, John, because it quotes your "Bible" as confirming the grade gap in the colleges between white and black. And uses it to show the Author's condescension toward blacks.

Do preferential admissions contribute to these tensions? John McWhorter, an African-American writer and the author of "Losing the Race: Self-Sabotage in Black America," believes so. "Black students often suspect that white students feel that they got in through affirmative action, which they often did," McWhorter says. "One way to reduce balkanization would be if black students all got into school for the same reason as everybody else."

McWhorter also believes that racial preferences help perpetuate the very gap in scholastic achievement that they are meant to make up for. Blacks and Hispanics get the insidious message that not much is expected of them. (In their 1998 book, The Shape of the River: Long-Term Consequences of Considering Race in College and University Admissions, William Bowen and Derek Bok, former presidents of Princeton and Harvard, respectively, declare that the performance of minority students admitted to top schools due to affirmative action cannot be considered "disappointing",despite a large racial gap in grades.) In McWhorter's view, this subtle message reinforces the tendency among African-Americans to regard achievement in school as "acting white."
reason.com