Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : WHO IS RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT IN 2004 -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: calgal who wrote (2852)	7/1/2003 1:57:07 AM
From: calgal	Respond to of 10965

2004 N.H. Democratic primary shaping up as Kerry vs. Dean jewishworldreview.com \| (KRT) With New Hampshire's first-in-the-nation Democratic presidential primary seven months away, the nine-candidate race is rapidly becoming a battle between two men who can't afford to finish second. In one corner stands Sen. John Kerry, from neighboring Massachusetts. He is the Establishment candidate: well-funded, with an experienced staff, a veteran of national politics. Across the ring stands Howard Dean, the former governor of neighboring Vermont. He is this year's surprise candidate, an insurgent charging hard from obscurity on a straight-talking, antiwar, liberal bandwagon. Kerry must win here or his aura as the presumptive national front-runner will be shattered, dealing his candidacy what could be a mortal blow. Dean must win here, where he has spent more time than any other candidate, or he probably will be washed up as the Democratic campaign moves on to larger states where big money is key, and flows only to winners. If either man loses his neighboring state, how could he possibly win in more distant regions, especially against President Bush? As fellow New Englanders, both men are favorite sons in New Hampshire, where such ties matter. Polls here show both far ahead of their seven rivals, with Kerry holding a 9-10 point lead over Dean for the moment, but with plenty of time for that to change. A swing through New Hampshire yields the unmistakable impression that either man could win. "Ideologically, I'm closer to Dean," Paul Shenk, a retired college instructor, said while waiting for Kerry to greet voters in a mill-turned-art-gallery in Laconia, a lakeside resort. "But I think Kerry may have the better chance to defeat the incumbent. There's something about his bearing, I don't think I can specify all that well. I find him very impressive." That sums up Dean's challenge: To build on his early momentum, he must overcome concerns about his chances against Bush. But Kerry hasn't put Dean away yet, partly because many Democrats haven't forgiven him for voting to authorize war with Iraq. Nashua, a city near the Massachusetts border, has a statue in front of City Hall commemorating the day that another Massachusetts senator, John F. Kennedy, kicked off his presidential campaign there. But a few blocks away, Bob Cagen tells a visitor to his optical shop that he is leaning toward Dean. "A lot of liberals were really turned off by (Kerry) not standing up" against the war, Cagen said. Another problem for Kerry is old-fashioned New Hampshire contrariness. "New Hampshire voters tend to want to give new voices a chance," said Dante Scala, a political scientist at St. Anselm College in Manchester. "New Hampshire voters are willing to give someone a chance in January who they wouldn't necessarily vote for in November." This is, after all, where upstart Gary Hart humbled Walter Mondale in 1984, and where John McCain trounced George W. Bush in 2000. Dean hopes he fits the same mold. The two men are competing for the same subset of voters: socially liberal, well-off, well-educated Democrats, mostly in the growing southern end of the state near the seacoast and the Massachusetts border. Kerry, who portrays himself as the candidate with the foreign policy and national security credentials to take on President Bush, should have the advantage. In a state where organization is key, his campaign staff includes many who worked for former New Hampshire Gov. Jeanne Shaheen, a three-term Democrat who left office this year. Shaheen is publicly uncommitted, but her husband is Kerry's state campaign chairman. Furthermore, many voters in southern New Hampshire are Massachusetts transplants who watch Boston television, read the Boston papers and are familiar with Kerry. Kerry professes unconcern about other Democratic candidates, but his pitch seems tailored to woo voters who are attracted to Dean's anti-Washington maverick appeal. At the Laconia session - a prime example of New Hampshire retail politics, where seen-it-all voters check out a candidate like buyers at a cattle auction - Kerry challenged about 50 voters to "reclaim our own democracy from the special interest money that swarms into Washington. … We don't need a second Republican Party!" Kerry took five questions at the session; four were about national security and foreign policy. That's a sign that voters here are concerned about issues that play to his strengths as a senior lawmaker with a war hero's record from Vietnam. Dean escaped military service with a medical deferment for a back problem and, as a former small-state governor, has never held foreign-policy responsibility. As if to drive home that difference, Kerry said: "I bring ... the capacity to be strong and right at the same time." The session ended well for Kerry. Walter Faithorn, 87 and dapper in a seersucker jacket, stood up and told him: "I've got some good news. My wife, Lisa, says she's hooked." Kerry raised his arms, yelled "Hoorraay" and hugged Lisa Carpenter, also 87. Nevertheless, the race remains wide open. Polls show between 18 and 25 percent of voters undecided. Most of them are focused on summer vacations, not presidential politics, and won't tune in until after Labor Day. Complicating matters: New Hampshire allows voters who don't register as either Republicans or Democrats to vote in either party's primary, and there are more undeclared voters than partisans for either party. Since Republicans have no primary, independents have only one race to weigh in on next January, and that makes them something of a wild card. One recent poll showed Dean doing better than Kerry among undeclared voters, who tend to value independence and freshness more than ideology. "I think the undeclared voters are going to tip the scales," said George Bruno, a former chairman of the New Hampshire Democratic Party. "And I don't think anyone has a lock on them yet." Labor also could make a difference. The New Hampshire AFL-CIO has about 43,000 members. "We could be extremely helpful to someone in New Hampshire," said Mark MacKenzie, the union president. The national AFL-CIO has yet to endorse a candidate, and may not. Kerry and Missouri U.S. Rep. Richard Gephardt seem to have the best shot at winning the unions' nod before primaries begin, but "the sense right now is nobody's got the edge," MacKenzie said. A labor endorsement of Gephardt could nail down a solid third-place finish for him; polls now show him tied for third with Connecticut U.S. Sen. Joseph Lieberman. Gephardt partisans say that if he wins the Jan. 19 Iowa caucuses as expected - eight days before New Hampshire votes - finishing third here would position him as the alternative to the primary winner as the race moves on. Besides the Kerry-Dean battle, the other notable impression New Hampshire voters leave is the low regard they hold for North Carolina U.S. Sen. John Edwards, touted by his fans as the tousle-haired Southern heir to Bill Clinton. Asked about Edwards, JoAnn Marchant, a teacher from Sanbornton who remains undecided, made a face and waved her hand dismissively. Edwards' poll numbers in New Hampshire are mired around 3 to 4 percent. Political insiders here find his organization unimpressive. And so far he has spent little time in a state where voters demand one-on-one attention. "He's not getting anywhere here," said Denis Parker, a lobbyist in Concord, the state capital. "He came in like gangbusters. But it's like, where'd he go?" It's still early, and Edwards' campaign announced last week that he will hold several town-hall meetings in New Hampshire beginning in July. "Even though it looks like a two-man race now, there's room for a lot more motion in this race," political scientist Scala said.

To: calgal who wrote (2852)	7/1/2003 2:00:13 AM
From: calgal	Respond to of 10965

Bush, Looking to His Right, Shores Up Support for 2004 By ADAM NAGOURNEY ASHINGTON, June 28 — A systematic effort by President Bush to enlist members of his party's conservative wing in the White House, and to champion touchstone conservative issues, has produced a unified base of support for him from this sometimes wayward faction of the Republican Party, conservative leaders say. Mr. Bush's standing among conservatives going into next year's election appears more than strong enough to withstand the strains that have emerged in recent weeks over some of his policies, including his support for providing prescription drug coverage under Medicare and for expanding the child tax credit. By any measure, Mr. Bush appears to have built up enough good will with his party's right wing to provide him significant latitude as he seeks to appeal to moderate voters by taking positions that might roil conservatives. Indeed, on one potentially pivotal matter — filling a Supreme Court vacancy, should one occur — conservative leaders say the president enjoys a level of trust that would allow him to nominate a candidate without unambiguously conservative credentials, avoiding an ideological battle that could harm his re-election efforts. Mr. Bush's position among conservatives stands in marked contrast to the troubled relations his father endured with many of them when he lost his re-election bid in 1992. Again and again in interviews, leading conservatives drew favorable contrasts with the first President George Bush, who endured a debilitating primary challenge from Patrick J. Buchanan, contributing to his defeat by Bill Clinton. "It's night and day," said Grover G. Norquist, president of Americans for Tax Reform, a conservative group. "Every group that this president has kept faith with, the previous president double-crossed." David A. Keene, chairman of the American Conservative Union, said: "In the first Bush administration, the conservatives were asked to be spectators — and it was hoped that they would applaud the action in the field. In this one, they have a president who wants them to be part of the team." Mr. Bush's effort to tend to the conservative wing of his party has emerged as a crucial part of his early campaign preparations. The Bush campaign has begun sending a representative to a meeting of conservative leaders that takes place in Washington every Wednesday, joining a delegation of as many as eight administration officials. Party officials say Mr. Bush's advisers — starting with Karl Rove, his senior political adviser, and Ken Mehlman, his campaign manager — are now in regular contact with about 60 conservative leaders across the nation, discussing issues of concern to the White House and the re-election campaign. Mr. Bush has named Ralph Reed, who first rose to prominence as executive director the Christian Coalition, as a senior member of his campaign team. Beyond that, Mr. Rove and Mr. Mehlman are viewed by conservatives as advocates for their point of view in the White House. Asked about efforts to mobilize conservative support, Mr. Mehlman responded: "Ultimately good policy is good politics. This is a president who has strongly pushed numerous policies that appealed to a lot of different groups — including conservatives." Many conservatives say Mr. Bush's alliance with their wing of the Republican Party is as solid as that enjoyed by Ronald Reagan. Some suggest it is even stronger. To some extent, several argued, that is a benefit Mr. Bush is enjoying from following Mr. Clinton in the Oval Office. "I think the strongest motivating factor out there that I see with gun owners and people who believe in the Second Amendment is that they can still taste eight years of Bill Clinton," said Wayne LaPierre, chief executive of the National Rifle Association. "They don't ever want to go back to that." Mr. Bush's White House has also embraced issues that many conservatives described as crucial to their support, starting with tax cuts (the issue that undid Mr. Bush's father with this group) and abortion, and also including national security and foreign policy. "Just about every conservative is thrilled with a president who tells the U.N. to take a hike," said Nelson Warfield, a conservative strategist. All this has given Mr. Bush some license to stray on other issues, particularly this long before Election Day. He has taken some positions that have stirred concern among his supporters, like his approval of the expansion of Medicare to cover prescription drugs, an increase in farm subsidies and the child tax credit measure. "His fiscal record is appalling — spending is out of control," said Edward H. Crane, president of the Cato Institute, a libertarian research organization. "The fiscal record of the Bush administration makes Clinton look downright responsible." Stephen Moore, president of the Club for Growth, a conservative group, said Mr. Bush had been "one of the biggest-spending presidents we've had in 20 years." But, he added, "he has cut taxes, so politically that has protected him." "A month ago, he passed this huge tax cut that I think is terrific — I mean, I'm thrilled by that — and now this month he's passing this preposterous prescription drug benefit, and I'm furious at him," Mr. Moore said. "But I can't get too angry with him because he passed this tax cut. That's the way this administration works." Some conservatives said the real test of their relationship with Mr. Bush would come if there was a vacancy on the Supreme Court and Mr. Bush chose a candidate whose ideological credentials might be in doubt, like Alberto R. Gonzales, the White House counsel. Ken Connor, president of the Family Research Council, said, "There are two issues that are nonnegotiable for the base: the sanctity of life and the sanctity of marriage." Mr. Connor praised Mr. Bush's record on abortion in particular, but said: "Everything he has done to date on the issue will pale in significance compared to the consequential nature of the Supreme Court nomination. If the president appoints another nominee like David Souter, all of that will be naught." But other opponents of abortion said they had confidence in any judicial appointment Mr. Bush might make. "The president has made great selections on the Circuit Court, and I trust his judgment on the Supreme Court," said Roberta Combs, president of the Christian Coalition. Anti-abortion groups say they are already moving to make sure rank-and-file abortion opponents turn out solidly for Mr. Bush next year. "What you'll probably see is pro-lifers trying to make sure that their fellow citizens, family friends, realize how bad at this point all of the Democratic president candidates are — they all support abortion on demand, with no limits," said Carol Tobias, the political director of National Right to Life. In 1994, when conservatives led by Newt Gingrich took control of the House, there was concern that their time in power would be limited. Today, many conservatives say, American public opinion is shifting their way, so there is no reason to be impatient — or to pressure Mr. Bush into doing things before the election that might hurt him next year. "The Republicans are looking at decades of dominance in the House and the Senate, and having the presidency with some regularity," Mr. Norquist said. "So if this year the tax cut isn't the one we wanted — no biggie. There's a sense that we can afford to wait." URL:http://www.nytimes.com/2003/06/30/national/30CONS.html?pagewanted=all&position=

To: calgal who wrote (2852)	7/1/2003 2:05:19 AM
From: calgal	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10965

Nader considering another try at White House in 2004 By Tom Squitieri, USA TODAY WASHINGTON — Ralph Nader, still blamed by many Democrats for draining critical votes from Al Gore in the 2000 race for the presidency, says he is seriously considering running in 2004. Activist Ralph Nader looks over his notes before speaking at Johns Hopkins University Thursday in Baltimore. By Gail Burton, AP His decision has the potential to vex Democrats who worry that he would divert some of their supporters and delight Republicans who think the same thing. Nader says he has moved closer to a repeat run as the Green Party nominee after concluding that Democrats have no one who can defeat President Bush. "It is quite clear that the Democrats are incapable of defending our country against the Bush marauders," Nader, 69, says. "They have been unwilling to go all out to stop the destructive tax cuts for the wealthy. They have been soft on corporate crime. They have gone along in almost every issue except judicial appointments. They have cowered, surrendered or divided themselves. "So what are you to replace Bush with? They won't go after him the way I could," says the longtime consumer activist, who won fame as author of an auto exposé titled Unsafe at Any Speed in 1965 and founded an advocacy network under the Public Interest Research Group umbrella. Nader has not taken any formal steps such as creating a campaign committee or registering with the Federal Election Commission. However, he is doing what he did in 2000: He has told Green Party officials he is interested in running and is encouraging "Draft Nader" movements. Nader acknowledges he could harm the Democrats' chances of winning the White House. But he also maintains that if he runs, and Democrats do not attack him, he will motivate thousands of people to go to the polls and cast votes for him, then mark the ballot for Democratic House and Senate candidates. He says that's what he did in 2000 for successful Senate candidates Maria Cantwell in Washington and Debbie Stabenow in Michigan. Nader says his candidacy could boost the vote for Democratic candidates by up to 4%, but he doesn't say how he came up with that number. "It is a question of how badly they want to win," he says. "They know my phone number." In 2000, Nader got 2,878,157 votes. That was 2.73% of the votes cast, a distant third place. But he tallied 97,488 votes in Florida and 22,188 in New Hampshire, many of which Democrats said would have gone to Gore to help him carry those states and win the election. Nader says he is "carefully watching the situation" and will decide early next year. The Green Party will pick its nominee next summer at its convention in Milwaukee. Nader says he would campaign on a strong liberal message that "is now easier to make" because of higher unemployment and wider economic pain, "the more outrageous giveaways" to the wealthy and corporations and "the tax cut that forgot 11 million kids." But he may not have as easy a time getting the Green nomination in 2004 as he did in 2000. Some party activists say he has become too divisive. Some Greens remain irked that he refuses to join their party; he is an independent. Ben Manski, national co-chairman of the Green Party, says Nader probably has the most support and momentum, followed closely by former Georgia congresswoman Cynthia McKinney and David Cobb, a party activist from Texas. Manski says Nader "is still the favored candidate, but that is not to say it is a done deal."