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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Archie Meeties who wrote (24244)	7/1/2003 1:51:19 PM
From: jim_p	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206093

Arch, Good response. Actually I believe Methane hydrates are being mined on a very limited scale in Japan. The potential for methane hydrates dwarfs the era of oil and gas extraction once prices are high enough to justify the cost of mining. The world economies are not coming to an end when we reach peak oil production, they will just need a period of adjustment. Jim

To: Archie Meeties who wrote (24244)	7/1/2003 1:53:01 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206093

projections of peak oil production couldn't account for new technologies of course they account for "new technologies". the Hubbert peak would have a much steeper backside (it would be a cliff instead of a curve) if it weren't for anticipated technological innovations and higher prices that allow for extraction of harder-to-exploit reserves. but remember, technology is only useful to the extent that it allows extraction on a net energy basis. a lot of the hyped energies of the future don't allow this. also, you need to look at how much extraction is enabled by a particular technology. in the greater scheme of things (i.e., total global production), they cannot stem the tide. Methane hydrate deposists, for example, are estimated at twice the total global amount of reserves of gas+oil+coal (!). from what i have read, methane hydrates are by and large not promising since they are solid and thus do not pool in sufficient concentrations to enable widespread extraction. methane hydrates will always be "the energy of the future". as Campbell writes: "Gas hydrates from the ocean depths can be confidently dismissed. They occur mainly as disseminated granules and laminae, meaning that the methane cannot migrate to ac cumulate in commercial quantities. Some of the reported thicker hydrate deposits appear to be nothing more than seepages of conventional gas on the seabed." also, there is considerable doubt about the aggregate promise of tar sands given the energy consumption and environmental issues involved in their exploitation. doesn't mean there won't be a few success stories, a la APC with methane hydrates. but you need more than a few drops to fill a leaky bucket. Peak oil production may be here (I doubt it), but we are far from peak hydrocarbon production. while total hydrocarbon production will have a different peak from oil, i suggest you read some of Colin Campbell's papers. perhaps he knows more than the third-grade teachers in the 1950s knew. hubbert.mines.edu hubbert.mines.edu

To: Archie Meeties who wrote (24244)	7/1/2003 2:56:25 PM
From: profile_14	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206093

I actually think it is good that NG stay in the range between $4.00 and $6.00. Wild fluctuations discourage investment (if to the downside) and eliminate demand (through the closing of businesses such as the fertilizer business) if prices are too high (say above $6.00). Within this range, there is plenty of money to be made by all participants while providing economic incentive and encouraging behavior that is beneficial to all alike, IMHO.