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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kormac who wrote (24266)	7/2/2003 1:00:00 AM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 206093

Kenneth Deffeyes has an article in the O&GJ in which he says the peak will be in early 2005. actually, Deffeyes is on record five weeks ago arguing that 2000 was the peak year. he writes, "It now looks as if the world peak production year is 2000." peakoil.net Hydrates are for thermodynamic reasons unimportant hey, that's a nice way to put it! i'll have to remember that saying. Hence we will do what we have always done and change only we become completely aware that it no longer works. i agree, and i also agree that there will be price cyclicality, but perhaps more volatility. the Deffeyes abstract cited above has some interesting commentary on this: "Most economists expect that declining production will cause oil prices to rise to a new equilibrium level. However, for most of this decade we will be traversing the broad curved top of the Hubbert curve; oil production will be roughly the same as demand. A well-known result from queuing theory says that systems operating close to their capacity are subject to wild swings in behavior. As an example, North American natural gas prices were quite steady until 1985, followed by increasingly large price oscillations. Over one weekend this past winter, the price of natural gas doubled." i don't know what queuing theory is so i can't comment on it. can anybody elaborate?