Moderates Welcome Battle With Dean - Other Democratic Contenders Like Chances Vs. A Liberal
By DAVID LIGHTMAN
Washington Bureau Chief - Hartford Courant
July 2 2003
WASHINGTON -- Howard Dean may not be the official Democratic front-runner, but today he's the party's star, and that's just fine with Joseph Lieberman and the other more moderate contenders.
They see the former Vermont governor as an unapologetic liberal - in other words, an easy target.
In the Lieberman camp, for instance, strategists think that early next year, someone will emerge as the Democrats' liberal favorite - right now it's Dean - and someone will be the moderate choice. "Once those two get picked, the moderate wins," a campaign source for the Connecticut senator said.
First, though, someone has to emerge as the leading moderate, and it's questionable whether Lieberman will have the money to do so.
With quarterly fund-raising totals leaking out of the campaigns, Dean's $7.5 million was seen as topping Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry's expected $6 million. North Carolina Sen. John Edwards was expected to report $5 million to $5.5 million, with Missouri Rep. Dick Gephardt at nearly $5 million.
Lieberman was hoping to reach $4 million but released no official total, and Florida Sen. Bob Graham estimated that he would raise $2 million to $3 million.
None of them was close to President Bush, who raised at least $34.2 million - including $22 million at fund-raisers in the past two weeks.
The fund-raising quarter ended at midnight Monday. Final reports are due in Washington by July 15.
Bush's numbers had been widely expected. The Dean surge was such a surprise that the Democratic nominating process was being redefined and spawning new questions Tuesday.
Does a strong Dean hurt Edwards, who has tried to position himself as the fresh-faced alternative to Bush? Does Dean create problems for Kerry, who has to win the first-in-the-nation New Hampshire primary? Do Washington insiders such as Gephardt, Graham and Lieberman stand a chance against an anti-establishment movement?
Kerry campaign manager Jim Jordan was unworried. "His challenge," Jordan said of Dean, "is to expand his vote beyond the ultra far left of the party."
He welcomed a Kerry-Dean showdown, as did other camps. Graham spokesman Jamal Simmons, for instance, said his boss was eager to compare his executive experience to Dean's - Graham was governor of Florida for eight years.
The Edwards camp also said it could do well against Dean. "If Dean wins Iowa and New Hampshire, a moderate would do well, because you could then have a moderate-liberal matchup," an Edwards official said.
More objective experts, as well as the Dean camp, saw things much differently.
"The moderate vs. liberal theory makes sense if you have the traditional voter profile, but Dean is bringing new people into the system," said Susan MacManus, professor of public administration and political science at the University of South Florida.
Historically, nomination fights come down to one-on-one races once contenders drop out. Early aspirants leave the race for three major reasons: controversy, such as Gary Hart's sex scandal in 1987; lack of money; and lack of voter support.
Dean forces contend they are not at a disadvantage in a one-on-one scenario. Campaign manager Joe Trippi said the survivors "are not about ideology." They survive, he said, for a host of reasons, including personality, regional or ethnic appeal and other factors.
Lieberman's forces believe that Dean is tapping the same kind of voter they are seeking. Such voters want a candidate eager to bring civility and a better moral sense to Washington.
Under this logic, a clash between Dean and Lieberman becomes a contrast in style as well as substance.
Dean would bring a passion Lieberman does not, but Lieberman would give the impression of a steady hand, political observers say.
Dean, the former governor of the nation's second-smallest state, would be up against a U.S. senator whose long service on the Senate Armed Services Committee gives him a detailed knowledge of the military.
Dean could trump Lieberman with his executive experience, citing his history of balancing budgets, appointing judges and signing legislation. But Lieberman could talk about mastering the art of compromise as a lawmaker who spent 10 years in the state Senate and 13 in the U.S. Senate.
And for all Dean's image as a liberal, Lieberman can talk moderate but brandish a consistently liberal voting record in the U.S. Senate.
All this, though, ignores a wild card that so far is hurting Lieberman: Dean keeps surging. Dean reported Tuesday that 59,000 people gave his campaign an average of $112, with nearly $3 million donated over the Internet in the final week.
Dean's rivals are suggesting he cannot possibly keep up this level of intensity until the first primary votes are cast in Iowa on Jan. 19.
But Jerold J. Duquette, an associate professor of political science at Central Connecticut State University who is sympathetic to Kerry, said he thinks it is quite possible. Dean, he said, attracts progressives who judge candidates on policy. Lieberman and some of the Washington contenders, used to compromising in the House or Senate to get things done, are more prone to suggest policies that are less rough-edged.
Dean also appeals to a wide universe of people fed up with politics. "He's got that anti-establishment thing going for him," Duquette said.
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