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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (115)	7/2/2003 6:24:28 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 110194

I think we crash in three stages after the 4th of July. A big swoon into August, with slight recovery, another swoon just before Labor Day, a pause/uptick and a final plunge into October. Major averages lose at least 30%, probably taking out all the lows for the bear market. Bond market crashes too.

To: ild who wrote (115)	7/2/2003 6:59:55 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Any restaurant shorts? Just spent about a week in Vegas and at the Grand Canyon, and every second rate meal is $8-$10 now on the entire trip, so much for bargains in Vegas. Even a couple crappy tacos in Williams, Az ran me that. I can't imagine there's much life left in the marginal ten buck meals gig, especially after Joe and Martha Sixpack spend and leverage their $20, or $30 "tax savings". BTW, the Grand Canyon was pretty sparse on people. Ranger said mostly foreign travel is way down. We found a room one mile from the entrance the afternoon we arrived. Vegas was hard to judge, tables didn't look that busy, shows were full, not much street traffic mid week, but picked up Thursday, and I was gone by the weekend. Mostly seemed to be younger people gawking at the Bellagio fountains and incredible (and expensive) buildings and facilities, rather than spending money. Maybe Vegas can get some traffic from the coming wave of laid-off Calf. state workers, as they'll have time and refi money? Is gaming another great short? Certainly hotels, Starwood? I like the MGM too much for that one. Harrah's? I think we're at the point where some reports from the field are in order? What are people seeing out there?