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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marc ultra who wrote (2649)	7/2/2003 8:26:17 PM
From: Lone Ranger	Respond to of 10065

marc, Absolutely agree with you. Posted earlier that there's always a contest among investments for your dollar. Not much fun getting minuscule mm rates. So like you say, with the monetary and fiscal stimulus being provided, the bull case is augmented. By far the majority of people I know that lost money in the excruciating bear have not yet returned to majority equity investment positions. They are too afraid and just can't pull the trigger expecting this market to decline precipitously each and every day. At any rate, its good you're nervous, so am I, market experience teaches us never to become complacent. And then again, bull trends always climb a wall of worry and imo, there's a lot to worry about but there's no need to bail until the price action proves to you that the trend is changing. Also, if people were lucky enough to get in near Brinker's signal, they're sitting on a pretty nice profit cushion and that allows you to ride out some of the increased volatility and increased risk with equities at present levels.

To: marc ultra who wrote (2649)	7/4/2003 9:39:41 PM
From: marc ultra	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10065

Just saw Ned Reilly as the guest on Lou Rukeyser's show on CNBC. Can't guarantee the accuracy of my memory or the few notes I quickly wrote. BTW he apparently made a lot of money in the bear. He now sees this as Bob does as a cyclical bull in a secular bear I thought he said the average for this type of bull was 50% over 371 days though I may listen to the replay at 8:30 Eastern to check that. He said while valuation at the end of a secular bear can be under a PE of 10, you'd expect it to be higher in a cyclical bull during a secular bear. As to the very bullish sentiment he noted this is not uncommon in a cyclical bull during a secular bear. As to what kind of stocks do well in this situation his answer was the more speculative stocks like tech and biotech. He even mentioned internet and that per his team they are looking at Japan seriously now also. Lou asked him that per his prior history as a strictly technical analyst what the technicals looked like. He said everything looks very strong and particularly noted that small caps seem to be in a prolonged bull market. Marc