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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (122)	7/2/2003 8:50:01 PM
From: russwinter	Respond to of 110194

Ruby Tuesday is a Prudent Bear short, and I looked at the 10-Q today. It would be a plain vanilla short, nothing really jumps out, another than people won't have the money anymore. What's the link to the Reaper comments? CFZ thread? Is it a short sell discussion thread? LAMR is a classic fixed cost, big debt, lousy business play, that the market seems to have already priced a recovery in to, it's just overvalued, and can't afford a further downturn. It's outdoor billboards (254,000 displays nationwide), mostly to small ma and pa hotel/motel, tourist attractions, food, casinos. Fewer customers for that with $2 gas, and lay-off slips. They are losing money, but like many of the dead men walking in our economy, managed to refi their junk bonds to bagholders at lower rates. The structure per display looks approx. like this; EV is $21,000 per display revenue: $2,900/display cost $1,130 SGA $670 Other expense, which would likely be lease rents (apparently not listed on balance sheet, but capitalized on income statement) paid to landlords, so maybe an accountant might comment on that? is $1070. They've reduced interest expense from $348, to maybe $280. So they are losing about $250 per display. Right now they are running about 10-12% below "norm" (whatever that means?), so I presume that once "normal" business returns (apparently after all the economic conditions described here, are magically cured with "liquidity") that means revenue would jump to $3200, and they could be slightly above breakeven. Whoppie! Market values this on an enterprise value basis at 5.3b, so go figure? One thing I will say about LAMR management. Seem like good ole, honest folks? Listen to the June 16 Thomas Weasel conference call on their web site. lamar.com He tells it like it is, blemishes and all, little hype, and totally the opposite of the "our shit doesn't stink" diatribes of outfits like MBI, and Fannie Mae. Oh God, here come the black helicopters.Short interest is a reasonable 7%, so doesn't have much squeeze potential left, at least I hope.