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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Spekulatius who wrote (17348)	7/3/2003 2:18:11 AM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78751

OT: Thanks, Spekulatius. I'll reconsider whether to hold any BAX shares at all. I am considering increasing positions in NVS and PFE. Do you, or anybody else here, have an opinion on these pharma stocks?

To: Spekulatius who wrote (17348)	7/4/2003 5:19:49 PM
From: Paul Senior	Respond to of 78751

re: BAX. Thanks again. Your opinion appreciated. BAX is cheap on its historical p/e basis. (Assuming they will make their current reduced earnings estimate.) In past the stock has recovered as it has regained favor with institutions. I expect that could very well happen once again. OTOH. Man, those negatives you mention are strong. And I have to wonder how long this stock can trade on its apparent potential - stockholders in actuality aren't well taken care of -- book value doesn't increase, dividends haven't increased in years, and long term debt is increasing. Sales increases don't seem to me like they're increasing to the extent that the p/e should be higher than its current maybe 15x. BAX has said they are targeting 8-10% sales growth on "continuing operations". Historically, BAX has achieved 10% sales growth in only a very few years in the past decade. Also, I'm getting sucked into media fears that there may be a market correction forthcoming at any time (if we're not already into it). So as regards BAX, I have come to agree with your opinion: "Even though the market reaction on the not totally unexpected shortfall was mild, i think this stock has significant risk at 25$/share." I closed my position Thurs. Paul Senior (Bought a few more shares of HCA with some of the proceeds.) Happy July 4 to all! Especially to us USA citizens for whom this is an important day!!