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Biotech / Medical : Millennium Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (MLNM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Icebrg who wrote (1703)	7/11/2003 2:45:06 AM
From: Icebrg	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 3044

Velcade mathematics I picked the following from Yahoo (msg # 41765), which might be useful to consider when Millennium is reporting their quarterlies. I will be more than satisfied with a 3.5 million sales figure for this quarter, which actually corresponds to 5 weeks of Velcade sales. Remember that the treatment is an 8 3-week cycles, with an accumulated cost of $20,000. The 3.5 million figure represents about one month of Velcade supply for the first wave of patients in the first month that Velcade is available. You need to multiply this figure by about 6 (assuming the patients had gone through one cycle of treatment on average) to arrive at the extraploated figure of full treatment, which is 21 million. As more new patients will enroll in subsequent months, this figure will expand. For example, if an equivalent figure of patients enrolls in the second month (July), then this group of patients will add another 21 million in this fiscal year. You go on for August, September etc but use a multiplcation factor that reflects the remaining months in this year (5 for August etc to arrive at a figure of 16.5 million). This adds up to 93 million for the first six months that Velcade becomes available. There are of course lots of assumptions but I simply wish to point out that it is not a simple multiplcation of sales of first months by 12 to arrive for a yearly figure. One further thing to consider is what it is that Millennium is reporting. Is it the actual use of the drug, which should be a relatively good indicator, or shipments to distributors, which holds less of a predicative value. Erik