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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (17355)	7/5/2003 10:37:20 AM
From: Steve168	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78957

To Paul Senior. Thank you for your positive feedback. Yes my record here (recommending ALVR@1.85, now 4.3 in a few months; VICL under $4, now 5.5 in just few weeks) seems to be lucky, I personally felt lucky too because the percentage move on the upside was above my expectation. However, my model and timing is a lot more than "below cash basket", for example, my screening tool (home built) gave me ICTS in the past couple months, it is below cash and profitable, the numbers seem to be better than ALVR and VICL. But my other evaluation criteria were able to filter it out so I did not recommend it here. My model also has a technical analysis component (that I built and modified in the past 10 years) which is very effective in timing. Anyway I am trying to stay cool after huge gains lately and taking some chips off the table. It is very important to not become complacent after my model portfolio (a real brokerage account) returned 143% since July 2001 and my total investing asset is closing to $1M mark. I am not using any margin or options, simply value stock picking plus tools for timing. I certainly have great goal in mind to be a very successful investor and more confident on that after 12 years thru the bull and bear.

To: Paul Senior who wrote (17355)	7/8/2003 1:02:20 AM
From: Steve168	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78957

NASDAQ/RUT up 10+% in 6 months, One stock to come soon. NASDAQ and RUT broke to new high today, it is very likely that SP500 and DJIA will follow. Once that is confirmed, I believe NASDAQ/RUT has at least 10% on the upside in the next couple months. People are simply realizing that 0.5% in money market is not worth it, and whoever bought T-bonds in the pervious two months are losing money. Big drop in bond prices will supply money for the rally, this is actually one of the safest time to buy stocks. However, selective buying is the key because any pull back can generate big loss if wrong stocks are bought/hold. My large holdings are ALVR, EONC, AIRN and DUSA. It is very hard to find deeply under valued stocks now, but one is coming on the way, waiting for the last technical parameter for confirmation, probably tomorrow night. This one has potential of going up 50-100% in the next 12 months. My two year performance is up 150%, no margin, no options, just long/short US common stocks.