Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Pastimes : SARS - what next? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (626)	7/4/2003 8:00:29 AM
From: Henry Niman	Respond to of 1070

>> That's messing with the global statistics<< The affected area is what is missing. In the US someone with atypical pneumonia and a history of travel to an affected area is a probable SARS case. However, most don't really have SARS, so they test negative for antibody and they don't die (but they remain as probable SARS). In affected areas only those with atypical pneumonia and contact with SARS cases are probable SARS so a higher percentage are positive for the virus because a higher percentage actually have SARS and 15% of those with pneumonia and the virus die (China is lower, but that is either because the definition is different or they have a milder form of SARS).

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (626)	7/4/2003 8:58:50 AM
From: Henry Niman	Respond to of 1070

Here are the case descriptions of the first 5 in the US to test positive for the virus cdc.gov Three of these not only were in an affected area, but were also in an infected area. The first two were at the Metropole Hotel and the 5th was in a Singapore hospital that was treating SARS patients. The 3rd had a sinus condition while visiting Hong King and the 4th just visited Hong Kong. The 6th was the Pennsylvania resident who went to the religious retreat in Toronto where the were at least 30 SARS cases. The 7th was a close relative (probably his wife) of case #2. The 8th visited a sick relative in Toronto whose roommate and wife developed SARS. Thus of the 8 US cases testing positive for the virus, 6 not only visited affected areas (Hong Kong, Singapore, Toronto), but they also visited infected areas (Metropole Hotel or hospital with SARS cases). The vast majority of the other 65 probable US cases visited affected areas and all tested (I would assume most by now), were negative for the virus (or antibody to the virus) and most probably did not have SARS.