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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ilaine who wrote (35723)	7/4/2003 8:35:11 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Hello CB, You are of course kidding about <<Steven Keen's "Non-Linear Dynamics of Debt-Deflation," >> … There is a derivation mistake and there is a logic flaw, but I will see if I can rework the idea to see what my commodity plays will yield ;0) <<You know, and I know, that as long as China maintains dollar/RMB parity where it is, Japan is going under>> … I actually do not believe it makes any difference because Chinese export is not exchange rate dependent as much as labour/productivity originated. A 100% revaluation of Yuan vs. Yen will not cause Japanese factories to return to Japan. Given that a melon in Japan can run 10,000 times the cost of a different melon in China, no reasonable amount of exchange rate adjustment can save Japan. The ability to buy inexpensive China-made goods can stretch Japan’s wealth a bit further than if not available. As to <<serve them right for what they did during WWII, correct?>> … the thought and sentiment is of course wrong, and logically does not follow, having not much to do with anything. I am sure that a reasonable person such as you would not really think in these terms. <<China, the world's newbie at globalized economics, will cause a greater depression than the US did>> … I would not quite term it this way, since China did not cause, instigate or encourage the Greensputin engendered paper asset bubble, but merely took the difficult and necessary steps in structural reform that resulted in Greensputin admired productivity improvements. <<lose everything … not Hong Kong, maybe. If you know how to make money shorting as well as going long>> … I happen to think many unprepared folks everywhere, including Hong Kong, will lose quite a bit. <<Jettison all debts, and avoid going under. Take on new debts only if the interest rate is ultra low>> … I think this is what the unmentionable one (Noland, oops) would advise as well :0) Chugs, Jay

To: Ilaine who wrote (35723)	7/5/2003 1:54:16 AM
From: smolejv@gmx.net	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi CB - on the first read I had an inkling ("must be something like that XYZ..."), now today I have finally some time and I checked and "it IS that XYZ" from 1998. Great math. Still... I wonder if anybody picked this brilliant set of partial diffs to make market calls (g). Let me know. And btw check Fig 3 vs fig 7: The phase space of the model has several fateful attractors?! Who would'va thunk so;\... Fig 3 is Twawki I guess, and the others... we'll give them appropriate names, when and if they come by, I guess. regZ dj