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To: Claude Cormier who wrote (13451)	7/4/2003 2:25:33 PM
From: loantech	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 39344

Claude that would be some correction if you see 100 to 110 on the USD where do you see POG bottoming? thanks, tom

To: Claude Cormier who wrote (13451)	7/4/2003 3:08:20 PM
From: Louis V. Lambrecht	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 39344

We disagree on the timing but agree on the general picture. My timing is based on the US prez elections for which I expect a rally in the indexes and the Dollar. But this still is more than a year from here. Kaboom, for me, is after the elections (sub 0.6, from 1.05-1.1). Should the Dollar idx print above 0.96 very short term, I will revise my roadmap. 0.96 Short term could mean a correction rally towards 99-102.5. In that case, kaboom could be this Fall. I agree, but with another killing rally between this Fall and next Fall.

To: Claude Cormier who wrote (13451)	7/4/2003 5:00:07 PM
From: SOROS	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 39344

Great post by "wndysrf": Once again, the jobs report was dismal. Mama-San Elaine Chao once again expressed her disappointment. "So Sorry" She went through her usual round of excuses and her usual rosy predictions for the second half. But she missed the point. The jobs report was essentially laughed off by the equity speculators. The initial gap down on the open was immediately bought. After all, who needs a job when "work at home on the Internet" opportunities are available?? Online SwapMeets on EBAY. Buy and sell all kinds of junk. Is it any wonder that UPS and FDX are trading near all time highs? PowerTrading stock index futures online. Any wonder that TRAD, AMTD, NITE are all exploding upward?? HomeMortgage by Internet. Send out on-line refi apps for the top retail banks like BAC, powering up to new highs daily. No income verification, no credit score necessary. Loan documents Federal Expressed within 48 hours. All service and industrial jobs are being sent to India. No problem. The U.S. will become the "investor class" of the world, where we simply engage in financial speculation while the "rest of the world" manufactures our SUV's, Coach handbags, and Pentium 4 PowerTrading Terminals. The equity markets worldwide are engaged in an epic meltup. Extraordinary acrobatic feats like the Nikkei, going virtually straight up to outpace the Dow's 4 month gains in a matter of weeks. Notice the "Alice in Repoland" behavior on individual stocks. Westwood One (WON) warns, gaps down, and is immediately jacked up in non-stop fashion on the Intraday. Boston Scientific (BSX) warns, and the dippers pile on in the open, crushing hapless short sellers. Seibel warns, says there is "no evidence of a pickup in IT spending" and that the second half is "dismal". That stock gapped down on the open, and Matrix Agent CIBC immediately slapped on a "sector perform" rating. SEBL runs up 4% on the day. AMD warned last week and was blown down on the open. Dippers immediately pile in, and the stock is now up 20% from those lows, now trading well above the "pre-warn" level. Every day, we get +1300 TICK readings, with new records broken on the sentiment indicators, now redlined for the 3rd month in a row. P/E ratios of 65 - 100 are now commonplace. No price is too high to pay for coffee shops, doughnut shops, and bread shops which do nothing different than the street vendors in an Iraqi Bazaar. Except they have that cool, buzzy, jazzy decor capitalized on the balance sheet which allows those 75% profit margins to flow directly to the bottom line without the inconvenience of outlandish leasehold improvements eating into profits. And as Puplava mentioned, YHOO's market cap exceeds the annual revenue of the entire online advertising industy. Why is that? Because USAI's "Match.com" and YHOO's "Adultfriendfinder.com" services are now morphing into online prostitution rings, worth paying over 100x earnings. No where else does the "War Rally" become a self fufilling prophesy, where huge equity gains jumpstarts an explosion in consumer spending, home buying, and financial speculation. States are going broke, yet there is a maniacal appetite for low grade municipals, evidenced by New York State's successful offering yesterday. Just watch how many vulture funds clamor for California's $50 billion 100-year, zero coupon bond sale next month. $35 billion for deficit plugging, and another $15 billion for pension plan stock purchases. Time and time again, equity markets sell off near the end of the day, drawing in eager short sellers, only to be Repo Blasted out the next day. -------------------- There is a fundamental paradox in regard to the Fed’s embrace of “unconventional measures” when all else fails: At precisely the time when they are most likely to be needed, this is also when they are also likely to fail. - Marshall Auerbach. In the end, the markets are always larger than the participants. All manias end badly - Alan Newman