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Strategies & Market Trends : Galapagos Islands -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lazarus_Long who wrote (43462)	7/4/2003 5:49:05 PM
From: Jorj X Mckie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57110

the_phoenix is encouraging discussion on his thread. Subject 53441

To: Lazarus_Long who wrote (43462)	7/5/2003 2:14:42 AM
From: Michael	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57110

LL, Both of those chart links seem to point to the same chart. I can't see your sample of where fibo's failed. Mike

To: Lazarus_Long who wrote (43462)	7/5/2003 2:30:38 AM
From: Jorj X Mckie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57110

OK, first of all, your links with fibs are not drawn very well, but we will address that later. On Wednesday, I wrote this on DDD: S&P 500 The S&P 500 broke through both trendline and price support, pegging a low at 962, but reversing to close up 7.82 points to 982.32. The break below support does suggest that this rally will be limited, but a close below the trendline support is needed to confirm the change to a bearish bias. A 50% retracement of the latest move down off the highs would give a target of 988, while a 61.8% retrace gives a target of 995. With the July 4th weekend in front of us, I would expect the 995 level to be reached before the trend reverses. This was the chart posted with it: dailyduediligence.com Here is a 60min chart showing that 995 was the exact high on Thursday. stockcharts.com[g,a]eaclnnay[p][j14549505,y]&listNum=1 Now, going back to the chart you posted. Here is one that is a little more accurate. stockcharts.com[g,a]daclnnay[p][J14549525,Y]&pref=G The 50% retrace would be 964.19. The SPX retraced to 962.80. Less than 1.5 points off. I have been criticized in the past for being a little foot loose and fancy free with my TA style, but I consider that to be "close enough for government work". I think that it would be folly to use fibs alone or to expect them to work every time. They are a guide. I use two levels, which you can see in my DDD excerpt up above, 50% and 61.8%. And then I look at the other factors, like the fact that we were going into a holiday weekend, and picked the higher number based on that. It seems to have worked out ok.