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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (10421)	7/5/2003 11:39:36 AM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95487

>I think the unexpected may happen again. PS: chip makers are still too timid to order equipment. You can see this by looking at increased sales vs flat equipment orders here home.comcast.net; First thank you for updating your excellent charts. Personally Gottfried, I'm not sure what to expect so what are you thinking will happen when you say to expect the unexpected again? Thanks, RtS

To: Gottfried who wrote (10421)	7/5/2003 1:35:11 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95487

Gottfried, That chart has a very powerful message - chip sales have been rising for the most part since January 02(10B to about 12.5B), but semi-equip bookings are essentially flat. The question is - how much further can chip sales rise without causing some increase in semi-equip spending?(You have a great chart there that you created - thanks very much for keeping it up on a monthly basis) One other thing your chart shows - chip sales were not as high last month as they were at the peak in 1995. If the bubble in 2000 is discounted, chip sales have been been bouncing around the 10 to 13 Billion dollar range for the past 8 years. No reason to have a big boom in semi-equipment procurement dollars unless chip sales rise to a higher average level - say at least to the 14 to 16 Billion monthly range? Don