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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (10424)	7/5/2003 1:57:08 PM
From: Gottfried	Respond to of 95487

RtS, I would only trade short term [a day or two] until I have a better sense what the bp are going to do. I do have SCE stocks in a long term account and think they won't drop much [maybe 10%] before rising, therefore will leave them alone. The June SEMI numbers due July 18. should be improved because they are April/May/June averages and March has been dropped. This may give SCE stocks a boost if the market is willing. Gottfried

To: Return to Sender who wrote (10424)	7/5/2003 2:12:52 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95487

RtS, <Who reading this would buy a stock long term right now in the semiconductor or semi equipment space?> I can add on a couple of comments to the note I just posted to Gottfried. If you look at Gottfried's chart, buying the "average" semi-equip stock on a "long term" basis is just not lucrative. The level of spending(except for the 2000 bubble) has not changed much in 8 years. To buy for the long term you have to use Cary's approach - try to determine which one(s) of the semi-equip companies are going to grow over the long term and essentially "wipe out" their competitors. I think a person has to come to the conclusion that the semi-equip business is not a growth industry overall. Gottfried's chart shows that conclusion. There are companies however, that show very good growth over the long term, but they are few and far between. Most companies, over many years, have relatively flat revenue, or declining revenues. Many companies are bought by their competitors. The best way(perhaps the only way) to make money investing in the semi-equips is to "time the cycles". Some people made a lot of money by being able to "buy low and sell high". There was a peak in 95, 97 and 00. Buying in 94, 96 and 99 and selling into those peaks was very, very lucrative. The market bottomed last October - then a recovery into early December - then a retrenchment to March - and a recovery since that time. The question we all want answered is - do we continue up from here for the next several months or do we have a decline into the Sept/Oct time frame? Don