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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: KMcKlendin who wrote (10425)	7/5/2003 12:37:24 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Respond to of 95487

RE: "It seems to me that a discussion of "the true suppliers of picks and shovels" should include optical networking companies." I agree that network bandwidth is a key part of the technology future. Both the backbone and the edges must continue to be upgraded. The edge upgrade is looking more and more like it will be primarily wireless. "Picks and shovels" are important, but they must be profitable. The storage industry is "picks and shovels" but the product has been a commodity for a very long time and the industry has not been profitable. The problem with optical networking is that it exploded during the bubble and consequently there is very little reliable track record data. I haven't seen definitive forecasts for 5 year demand and I have not been able to evaluate new technology and competitive positions. So, you have 2 industries to investigate. It appears that storage has reached capacities that easily exceed user requirements at sizes and prices that make it appropriate for far more applications than the traditional computers. They are still a commodity, technically, but, maybe, there is enough differentiation in specific application markets to earn a decent return. I don't like gambling and I don't like to play games of chance, so I try very hard not to need luck. If it turns out that I am very lucky instead of very good, I will accept that graciously.<g>