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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (10429)	7/5/2003 2:05:57 PM
From: Gottfried	Respond to of 95487

Don, also note that in the past 8 years for which I have data chip sales at todays level caused higher equipment orders than we see today. That's not even taking inflation into account. home.comcast.net Doesn't that equipment wear out? :) I read everywhere that businesses are trying hard to spend money just in time - and that extends to hiring. "When they come they come all at once"? Gottfried

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (10429)	7/5/2003 2:54:58 PM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95487

Gottfried, That chart has a very powerful message - chip sales have been rising for the most part since January 02(10B to about 12.5B), but semi-equip bookings are essentially flat. The question is - how much further can chip sales rise without causing some increase in semi-equip spending? The answer is "how much capacity did they build before the bubble crashed?" The average is about $14B.... still above where we are today.