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Pastimes : SARS - what next? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Henry Niman who wrote (636)	7/6/2003 1:27:08 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1070

15% is a very high number. How damaged are those who "recover"? I suppose another 10% have such major residual damage that their prospective life is dramatically compromised with reduced life expectancy. So, if it really gets loose, with variations so it's rampant, we are looking at Black Death proportions of people killed. Which is what Gwynne Dyer originally was writing about, back on 26 February, which opened my eyes wide. I find him one of the best commentators on world events. nzherald.co.nz Message 18629116 By the 24th of March, I was worried and wondered about the impact of mutations. Now you say the mutations are the thing to worry about. siliconinvestor.com The human population graphs for the 21st century might bear little relationship to reality, even though they've been adjusted down in the last few years. The problem with funding retired people might go away since they seem to be the ones who die in disproportionate numbers. Life is full of surprises [usually of an unpleasant nature]. I'd thought sars really might be beaten, but you have persuaded me that we are in big trouble. Next winter is going to be quite an event by the look of things right now. There hasn't been a really major uncontrolled disease for decades and the influenza outbreak early last century wasn't as bad as this one's potential. I dare say the travel and tourism industries won't be good investments. Mqurice PS: 15% of 6 billion would be 900 million dead people, mostly older. That's quite a demographic shift. I suppose that's the worst it can be [which some would say is bad enough]. It makes AIDS look trivial. And Al Qaeda. And a lot more besides. Gwynne Dyer: <The "Spanish flu" pandemic of 1918 infected between 20 and 40 per cent of the world's population and killed 20 million people in four months, twice as many as died in World War I. Most of the victims were young, healthy people who died of complications such as bronchitis and pneumonia. > So, if 30% of the world's population is infected [which I suppose reduces the vectors of transmission sufficiently that the disease fizzles out due to too much immunity in the remaining people], that would be 2 billion people, with a death rate of 15% giving 300 million. Still a lot of people. CB, I dare say you can follow that maths...