To: calgal who wrote (3075 ) 7/7/2003 12:43:20 AM From: calgal Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10965 Saddam's Counterattack Quit beating around the bush: America faces a guerrilla war. Monday, July 7, 2003 12:01 a.m. EDT Historians will record the U.S. lightning march to Baghdad this spring as a great military achievement, but unfortunately the weeks since have shown that our victory remains incomplete. The sooner President Bush acknowledges and explains this truth, the quicker the public will rally to support him in the challenge that lies ahead. We say this not as critics of the war but as advocates who want to consolidate its many gains. The war's opponents have been exploiting the difficult aftermath to insist that it should never have been fought, and the polls for the first time show some erosion in public support. Especially as casualties mount, as they very well may, Mr. Bush has to explain why Americans are still fighting and dying in Iraq. One reason, clear enough in recent days, is that the remnants from Saddam Hussein's regime are mounting an anti-American guerrilla war. They have been joined by jihadis from around the world who see a chance to inflict enough casualties to undermine U.S. resolve and drive America home before a new Iraqi government can assert control. What is unfolding, in short, is a counterattack intended to deal the U.S. war on terror a dispiriting defeat. Saddam himself may be inspiring this guerrilla effort, whether from the grave or some bunker, as his taped message on the weekend purported to show. "Make the mujahedeen secure and catch any spies," he said on the tape broadcast on Al Jazeera. "We call on Iraqis who deal with the Americans to stop doing so." A day later seven young Iraqis were killed by a bomb that exploded as they were graduating to join the new U.S.-trained police force. Only days before that the former Sunni chief of Saddam's tribe who'd later disavowed him was assassinated. Like the sabotage against oil pipelines and electric plants, these killings are designed to sow fear among Iraqis that the Baathists can take revenge on anyone who works with the Americans. The Bush Administration has been slow to recognize and describe the nature of this threat. Its instinct has been to hunker down and compare security in Baghdad to the crime rate in Washington, D.C., or to Shays Rebellion after the American Revolution. These analogies understate the problem, to say the least. Criminals in the U.S. aren't lobbing mortar rounds into military bases or putting a bullet into a soldier in the gun seat of his Bradley Fighting Vehicle while guarding a Baghdad museum. By playing down the risks, American officials also invite the press corps to play gotcha and portray events as more dire than they are. The new U.S. offer of a $25 million reward for Saddam, and $15 million for either of his two sons, is a sign that the Bush Administration at least privately realizes the danger. The U.S. may have to go further and consider larger-scale detentions, especially in the Sunni-Baathist heartland north of Baghdad. The U.S. military doesn't like to hold prisoners, because it takes away resources from offensive operations, but perhaps this is a duty for some of the foreign troops the U.S. is recruiting. We'd also feel more encouraged if the U.S. began to rethink its strategy against military tribunals for the crimes and torture committed under Saddam's rule. In the best of all worlds, the decision on how to balance prosecution with reconciliation might have been left to a new Iraqi government. But with the Baathist-jihadi challenge, anti-terror prosecution is needed now as a tool of security and a sign that the old killers will never return. Iraqis afraid that the Baathists might come back need to be reassured by seeing their jailers punished. There is every reason to believe that the U.S. will eventually defeat this Baathist-terror counterattack, as completely as it did the Republican Guard in April. The guerrillas lack the kind of foreign sanctuary or great power patron that, for example, the North Vietnamese had. Presumably Mr. Bush has told the Syrians and Iranians that we will cross their borders in hot pursuit, or to root out terror bases, if those countries help the terrorists. And for all of the damage the counterattack is doing, life continues to improve for most Iraqis, especially in the south.But the first step toward that victory is recognizing the challenge, and explaining it to America with the same thoroughness and candor Mr. Bush displayed before he committed U.S. troops. The lesson we draw from American wars is that the public will accept casualties, even in large numbers, as long as it feels the cause warrants it and that its leaders have a strategy to succeed. As late as May of 1967, long into the war and after more than 10,300 U.S. deaths, 50% of the American public still supported the conflict in Vietnam. The public won't turn against the U.S. commitment in Iraq merely because of casualties. But it will turn if it thinks its leaders aren't being honest with them about the challenges we face or the sacrifices required to prevail. One certain way to undermine public trust is to fail to recognize that the systematic murder of friendly Iraqis is a sure sign of guerrilla war. It's far better for Mr. Bush to define the anti-guerrilla task now and on his terms, rather than wait for casualties to increase and have Howard Dean find a new and more receptive audience for his antiwar message later. URL:http://www.opinionjournal.com/editorial/feature.html?id=110003712