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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: runes who wrote (6397)	7/7/2003 11:58:16 AM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25522

Excellent posts. Am curious as to how you think the current cycle will play out, and how you are positioning yourself from an investment standpoint. TIA Brian

To: runes who wrote (6397)	7/7/2003 3:25:00 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25522

RE: "Yes the bust is triggered by "oversupply" but what actually happens is that a capacity boom is triggered by accelerating demand. And then that demand decelerates but the time lag effect keeps the capacity increasing long after the demand growth has slacked off." 1. "...a capacity boom is triggered by accelerating demand." I agree. 2. "And then that demand decelerates..." Not necessarily! 3. "...the time lag effect keeps the capacity increasing..." I agree. The time lag, huge delta per fab, and the uncoordinated (competitive) behavior of the players, makes overcapacity likely even if demand continues to accelerate. RE: "No cycle is ever typical." True, but one of the greatest manias in investment history can't be considered just another typical, atypical cycle. RE: "I'm not sure quite what you are trying to say here." The bubble and its aftermath changed the typical monotonically increasing character of semi unit demand. I expect the effects to wear off in time and semi unit demand will return to its typical character, monotonically increasing.