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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Compadre who wrote (46130)	7/8/2003 10:07:56 AM
From: Ramsey Su	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 52237

jaime, I think the next most likely event is going to be a sharp drop off in real estate refinancing. Rates have gone up enough that all the serial refinancers should be heading for the sidelines. The procrastinators should be applying in earnest now and when done, they will be gone unless rates drop very significantly from here. At around 75% of total mortgage applications, refinances are clearly the driving force for the industry. There is no doubt refinances will slow down, so who would be impacted? I think this would be the sequence: 1. title insurance companies such as FAF and FNF. 2. lenders such as GDW and WM. 3. MI companies such as MTG, PMI and RDN (if real estate market proves to be bubble, if not these MI companies may actually benefit from slow down). When is this going to happen? It could be as early as tomorrow when the weekly application data is released by the Mortgage Bankers Association.