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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Ox who wrote (10499)	7/8/2003 12:55:59 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Respond to of 95520

There are several statements in the article - lets see if I can get it all straight in the following table. If I did it correctly, unit volume shipments are expected to be up 4 percent in 2003 compared to the previous record year of 2000. At the same time, the dollar volume will be down 23 percent. This would seem to be reasonable based on prior history of increased productivity of all kinds "giving a person more for their money". I think it also points out how much volume growth will be required in the future to increase revenue growth in the neighborhood of 20 percent per year as presently predicted by First Call(analyst consensus). A tall order - the article is predicting a 15 percent volume growth in 2004 - that will translate to something less than a 15 percent revenue growth - maybe on the order of 10 to 12 percent? - PCT - YEAR CHG - 2000 2003 UNITS 86.5 90.3 4 DOL($B) 176.9 136.4 -23