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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (6412)	7/9/2003 10:43:11 AM
From: runes	Respond to of 25522

Let's wrap up all this boom/bust talk... I think we are getting down to the level of detail where we start losing sight of the forest. (At least I am!) Have there been major changes in semiconductor market? Sure - Anything this fast growing is going to be in a continuos state of evolution. Have these changes alterred the boom/bust dynamic. IMO - no. At least not at the present time. ...There is some coordinate behavior among DRAM suppliers when the market is so bad that everyone is losing money but there is absolutely no sign that they are ready to work together when there's a buck to be made. ...And the foundry group is much less cohesive than the DRAM group. Has the bubble collapse and the negative unit volume growth had a lasting impact? Again - IMO - no. It may lengthen the time until the next "mini-boom". But Dataquest already "sees" a supply shortage in '05 which would actually make for a faster rebound than after the '90 trough. Time will tell the actual truth of the matter. But I think that we can all agree that the semi market is still a good place for investment whether it goes boom-bust-boom-bust (cyclical growth model) or just grow-grow-grow-grow-grow (growth model). Food for thought - Fitzgerald's prognostication is that semis are just going to go up-down-up-down (cyclical stock model).