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To: Return to Sender who wrote (10528)	7/9/2003 10:40:50 PM
From: Return to Sender	Respond to of 95500

Fab utilization above 90% by year-end, says Gartner By Peter Clarke Semiconductor Business News 07/09/2003, 8:44 AM ET siliconstrategies.com In addition, the utilization of capacity at wafer fabs used for foundry chip manufacture should score above 90 percent one quarter earlier than the overall industry, in the fourth quarter of 2003, Gartner said in its capital spending and equipment forecast update teleconference on Tuesday (see July 8 story). The level of 90 percent utilization is generally seen as a threshold, above which chip shortages start to appear and lead times start to lengthen. Gartner is also predicting 2003 sales growth within the foundry part of the semiconductor business at between 21 percent and 27 percent ahead of 2002, and most likely to land at 23 percent annual growth. To achieve that some foundries may need to demonstrate second-half performance that is much stronger than the first half. Sales revenue for the first half of 2003 at Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd., the foundry market leader, was 11.6 percent ahead of the same period in 2002 whereas another foundry, United Microelectronics Corp., scored a first half of 2003 28 percent ahead of the first half of 2002 (see July 9 story). Three-year slump The overall chip making industry dropped below 90 percent wafer fab utilization in the first quarter of 2001, an event that roughly marked the beginning of the longest and deepest slump the industry has known. Gartner analysts see it breaking above 90 percent three years after that and after dipping as low as 60 percent in the third quarter of 2001 before completing a 'double-dip' manoeuver. Fab utilization in the foundry subset of the overall industry has performed in a similar manner but about a quarter ahead of the overall industry, and subject to much wider swings. Foundry utilization dipped below 90 percent in the fourth quarter of 2000, experienced its first minimum of near 40 percent in the second and third quarters of 2001 and was standing at a second minimum of 60 percent as recently as the fourth quarter of 2002, according to Gartner. Now, foundry capacity utilization is set to climb to about 95 percent by the fourth quarter of 2004, according to Gartner's presentation.

To: Return to Sender who wrote (10528)	7/10/2003 3:07:56 AM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95500

I am really impressed with this outfit.:) <"The next stage of the recovery was set in motion by factors we measured a year and half ago," says Rosa Luis, director of marketing and sales for Advanced Forecasting, in a statement. "Knowing the timing of that turning-point is crucial in order for companies to be able to prepare. Advanced Forecasting informed its clients that it would occur during Q4-2003, and we stand behind that forecast."> They obviously have their act together. Such precision from a year and a half ago - truly remarkable.:) I'll bet their clients pay big bucks for that kind of timely information.:) Don