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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (17388)	7/11/2003 6:10:33 PM
From: Steve168	Respond to of 78717

Paul Senior, thank you for the message and great question. I like to clarify first that I am not simply a below-cash no-debt investor, I do have other requirements, some general business insights, etc. I am thinking about my strategy when all the below cash plays run out (look like it will happen soon). I am not a trader, I usually purchase a stock and intend to hold a core position for a long time. Such as my large position in ALVR, and some leftover positions in SINA (selling recently above 20). When the market is richly valued, I hope I will be holding a concentrated portfolio of 5-10 stocks that have growth potential. The MOST rewarding thing happens to a value investor is when your stock purchased at cash value (such as my PHTN@3 and SINA@1.5) turn out to be a super star, a 10, 20 or 30 bagger! Even you have 20% stocks went bankruptcy, you are still outperforming market by a significant margin. There will be a time that I scratch my head for not being able to find stocks to buy. I was doing that in 1999 when I saw many first time stock buyers outperforming my return on purchase of JDSU and RHAT. I shorted them and some positions were forced to cover. I will keep a lot of cash (or bonds) and restrain my urge to short next time. I learned the short positions must be very small and diversified. I welcome any thoughts on this since it will be the BIG question to all of us value investors. I will continue to add my thoughts here later. Good luck to all! Steve168 (My only current buy is PCYC)

To: Paul Senior who wrote (17388)	7/15/2003 10:15:02 PM
From: Steve168	Respond to of 78717

VICL had another positive news and jumped to $7.8 today. I sold early at $5.7 range. But considering my buy at 3-4 range (and recommended here), I am happy. I won't be able to (and don't even try to) catch all the gains. My switch to PCYC at $4.5 is doing well too, up 5-10 cents a day and it is $5.08 today. Not much volume and most buying were at ask price, that means nobody is selling, and buyers are not in a hurry to run it. The below cash play is very powerful, resulted huge returns for me lately, but I am running out of ideas, PCYC is probably the last one. Given the current positive market, I expect PCYC to go up to $6 easily, more likely to $8-10 range in the next couple months.

To: Paul Senior who wrote (17388)	12/4/2003 7:06:30 AM
From: Steve168	Respond to of 78717

PAUL, PCYC opened over $9 yesterday. It was my only pick in July 2003 at $4.5. It traded at $4.5 for 9 days after my post. I took profit on the way up, now completely out. To:Paul Senior who wrote (17384) From: Steve168 Wednesday, Jul 9, 2003 9:58 PM View Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18112 My last call in a while - PCYC Paul, I was really really lucky lately and thank you for your positive comment. This is an email I sent out yesterday. I don't recommend you to buy any stock and this is just for the record on what I am buying/selling. I sold all VICL and buying into PCYC. They are in the same biotech/cancer drug business and PCYC is 30% under valued than VICL according to my proprietary model. Best, Steve168 From: Steve168 Subject: I am buying PCYC near $4.5. 7/8/2003 The biggest gain in stocks was probably already made in the past 3 months, but the next 10% is surer, because the big trend is clear: Money is flowing from fix-income securities (bonds, money market, etc) to stock market. People are sick of 0.5% money market, and realizing the risk-free interest of bonds are becoming interest-free risks. Deeply undervalued stocks are very hard to find, my major holdings ALVR, VICL, DUSA, AIRN and EONC all reached/passed cash value from 30-60% discount to cash just couple months ago. My portfolio is up 150% in the past 2 years, no margin, no options, just long/short US common stocks. The model is built on my 12 years experience in the market, value oriented (big fan of Graham and Buffet's early years) combined with technical analysis and my proprietary Internet data mining tools (I wrote the program). There is only one buy from my model, and I am buying it - it is PCYC. It is a beaten down biotech trading at 30% discount to cash, with no debt and tolerable burn rate. It has cancer drugs in phase III trial and early results are positive. I am buying the pipeline and intellectual property for free. There is significant risk of buying any stock, and I don't recommend anyone to buy any stock.