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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (35916)	7/9/2003 11:48:09 PM
From: EL KABONG!!!	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi KastelCo, Are you looking for much more on Japan here ? Japan's market is not much different from the markets in the USA and Canada in that, the Japanese market is moving as much on the perception of an improving situation as it is on the reality of the situation itself. The Nikkei, the NASDAQ and to a lesser extent the NYSE are "fairly" priced given an improving economy in the USA and Asia. However, the markets are forward looking, and in my opinion, they sometimes tend to look forward too much, allowing enough time for disaster to strike in some unexpected format. So, all that said, the clear perception of the economies at the moment is for an improving US economy, and subsequently an improving Japanese (as well as the rest of Asia) economy, which should in turn, lead to higher prices for equities in Japan as well as the US. My current guesses (and it is strictly wild guesses) are for Japan to cross 13000 (Yen) and the DJIA to cross 10000. The NASDAQ could easily push 2000 before any significant retracements, and the S&P might top 1300 (led by small caps and mid-caps). As I said, just guesses, but the stars and the planets seem to be lining up for a short term run here. I'd need to see more numbers from later in 2003 before making any guesses on whether or not the runs are sustainable for the long term. Right now, fundamentals are saying that these positive market gains are not sustainable, and that the current rally is nothing more than a glorious bull run in a secular bear market. KJC PS - I pretty much follow fundamentals for long term outlooks. Should the markets retreat, not all stocks would suffer huge losses. There are some stocks out there that deserve a second and even a third look. Not all stocks are presently overvalued.