Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Seeker of Truth who wrote (35997)	7/11/2003 9:21:12 AM
From: AC Flyer	Respond to of 74559

>>Flyer, the demographic meltdown has already begun.<< Hi, Malcolm. I'm not sure I can agree with this except in the limited sense that the oldest boomers are approaching retirement age. The key ideas are that spending patterns of individuals vary predictably with age and that consumer demand can be predicted by aggregating the predicted spending of the total number of people within each age group. Peak spending for an individual occurs somewhere between age 47 and age 50 (on average, you understand - we're talking probability functions here) so that aggregate consumer demand in the US economy will not top out until around 2009 or 2010. That's the good news. The bad news is that after hitting this peak, consumer demand will decline rapidly. It is probable that this decline will bring a severe recession, possibly a depression, and declining asset prices for an extended period of time. US demographics suggest that we will not hit the bottom of this decline until 2023. It'll be 1990s Japan redux. In the meantime, The peak spending of the boomers will coincide with the second half of the internet/broadband/wireless growth curve for the rest of this decade, bringing us, I believe, one last hurrah - the return of the Bubble.

To: Seeker of Truth who wrote (35997)	7/11/2003 10:04:47 AM
From: Cogito Ergo Sum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi Malcom, On the jobs I raised this point with energyplay. At best I think we'll be in for a lot of social upheaval if boomers as a demographic entity try to keep jobs and younger folks are left out. It's not so cut and dry.. Mind you as you know they are dumping mandatory retirement here. OTOH it depends on your field I guess. My wife is an audiologist and I write and support software. I don't foresee any problem getting freelance work. I've been self employed for 10 years now. My wife can also get part time work in her field (does now actually). We plan to be semi retired before / by 55 which is only 8 years away. By that time we'll need the extra energy to deal with our then 12 year old son.. oy! regards Kastel