SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Gold/Mining/Energy : Precious and Base Metal Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: austrieconomist who wrote (13792)7/11/2003 10:39:57 AM
From: TheSlowLane  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 39344
 
Nice chart, thanks for posting it. Here is an article on some of the effects of all that money washing over us...

money.cnn.com

Adding any PM stocks in particular?



To: austrieconomist who wrote (13792)7/11/2003 11:12:44 AM
From: russwinter  Respond to of 39344
 
My response to the Bank Credit Monitor economic comment you posted earlier, can be gleaned from my post here.
post.messages.yahoo.com

I think the primary indicator to look at is the mortgage app and the refi index. I've been posting those at the credit bubble site.
Subject 54034



To: austrieconomist who wrote (13792)7/11/2003 12:21:53 PM
From: jrhana  Respond to of 39344
 
That is one impressive chart

right now some of it is splashing into Son of Tech Bubble
but the PMs are holding their own
Our day will come



To: austrieconomist who wrote (13792)7/11/2003 4:48:15 PM
From: russwinter  Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 39344
 
Sorry for the off topic response to this thread, rather than to credit bubble,
Subject 54034
but my friend austrie chooses to have what I consider excellent exchanges with me via PM, and doesn't post at Credit Bubble, and I wish to share what I wrote back to him.

Simply put, monetary policy is effective for fighting inflation, a la Paul Volker, but easy money is no cure for the deflation WHEN A CREDIT BUBBLE BURSTS. To think otherwise is like believing that consuming more alcohol is the cure for drunkenness. Alcohol (money creation) makes the drunk feel good for a few hours, but rots his liver even more. Unlimited expansion of the money supply will end in the death of the currency involved. You cure alcoholism and hangovers by purging the unnatural toxins that over-stimulated the nervous system during the binge. The binge was caused by too much liquidity to begin with. More liquidity is not the treatment.

The flaw in monetarism as a cure for deflation and credit collapse is that it incorrectly assumes that somehow "extra money" would find it's way into "people's pockets". However, in a post-bubble economy (Japan being a prime example) there are few profitable real economy investment opportunities to exploit. About the only one I can see at present is energy. The global credit bubble has already permitted over consumption, overinvestment, excess capacity and asset bubbles. What would you propose, still more of that?

To understand where the fallout will be the strongest look to areas that need cheap, very available, no ties credit to stay barely above water. I'd say the entire financial and consumer sector especially in the US, which I am now heavily short, versus short dabbling in April and May.