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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Pink Minion who wrote (10544)	7/11/2003 11:28:02 AM
From: Proud_Infidel	Respond to of 95487

I just look at factual data from the past 8 years. Within those same 8 years we have witnessed the bursting of the the largest mania to affect the markets since the depression, the worst terrorist attack in our history, and corporate malfeasance like we have never witnessed. And to make it worse, they all occurred within a 2 year timeframe! To somehow extrapolate from this time period and specifically these events seems ludircous to me.

To: Pink Minion who wrote (10544)	7/11/2003 12:15:17 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Respond to of 95487

RE: "I was married to it from 1995-2000 and learned that the hard way." If I remember correctly, a relative who followed my advice saw $18K invested in 1996 grow to $165K in 2000. Unfortunately, she has retained only about $80-100K, in the crash. RE: "No way can demand growth match the "doubling of supply (transistors) every 18 months." Doubling has occurred between every 12 months and the current every 18 months+ since the 1960's. Demand growth has exceeded supply and lower ASPs for a very long time and chip revenues have grown for a very long time. RE: "Market moves seems senseless to me, thus either I'm an idiot or I need to think like one." Not an advertisement for a market newsletter or a reason to post to investment message boards.

To: Pink Minion who wrote (10544)	7/11/2003 2:48:25 PM
From: Sam Citron	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95487

No way can demand growth match the "doubling of supply (transistors) every 18 months." This means the other half of the industry gets crushed from the Law. That seems to be true, but is why prices keep getting pushed down thus spawning new applications that we cannot even dream of. It seems to balance out somewhat making for a decent long term growth rate and excellent profitability for the most successful semi and equipment manufacturers. Are you saying that "it's different this time" as in "technology has suddenly matured" or "it's just too costly to build new fabs any more"? There is certainly a healthy amount of "creative destruction" taking place in the industry. But it seems to be a game of winner take all and I see no reason at this point to assume we are on a permanent revenue plateau, hence identification and investment in the best of the lot seems quite rewarding.