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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (10549)	7/11/2003 2:32:31 PM
From: Sam Citron	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95484

So would I. Their Global Billings Report History (1976 – 1989) sia-online.org contains caveat: THE DATA FROM 1976 – 1980 ONLY CONTAINS U.S. BASED MANUFACTURER DATA; THE DATA FROM 1981 –1983 ADDS EUROPEAN MANUFACTURER DATA; THE DATA FROM 1984 –1986 ADDS AN ESTIMATE FOR JAPAN-BASED MANUFACTURERS; AND THE DATA FROM 1987 – 1989 CONTAINS ACTUAL JAPAN-BASED MANUFACTURER INFORMATION. The end points are Jan 1976: 247554 and Dec 1990: 4040873 It doesn't specify, but I assume that's in units of thousands of current dollars, which would make the Dec 1990 figure $4.04B, hence a triple to the recent $10-13B range (including inflation). Still would like to see a chart or table showing year over year growth rates before entirely dismissing SemiBear's contention, though I doubt it holds water. Cost data would be useful as well, though difficult to obtain on an aggregated basis, because even stagnant revenues might be profitable for those companies able to achieve them while significantly lowering costs.

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (10549)	7/11/2003 3:24:07 PM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95484

Worldwide semi billings increased from 3.8 billion in 1990 to 18.6 billion in Oct 2000 or an increase of 390% from 1990. (note: During that same time, the America's portion of billings increased from 30% of the total to just under 32%.) The drop from 2000 to the lows seen in Jan 2002 reduced billings by 46%. Since the billings bottom, we have seen an increase in billings of 25% off the bottom. I'm not sure how much analysis is necessary by simply looking at the numbers?