Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sam Citron who wrote (10555)	7/11/2003 8:46:17 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95487

RE: "Am I making a dreadful error here?" Yes! Well, probably! We are doing Moore's Law doubles from a very high base. The result is a very high cost to produce the double and a very valuable result from the double. From my viewpoint, the value of the result continues to grow more rapidly than the cost. Also, as you point out cost is being shared and undertaken in a more rational manner. This will moderate the boom/bust character of the industry and will produce less opportunity for investors to play the cycles, but the aftermath of the dot com bubble has provided the industry with a very long down cycle. So, it is possible that we are seeing the last oppotunity to buy after a very significant drop in business. I believe that the value added by the leading edge equipment vendors minimizes pricing pressure. I think that there is a very significant shift in the technology sphere that is not being picked up by the investment community. Every time I hear the words "IT spending" I am convinced that the real development is being missed. For most of my lifetime, chips were used in computers and computers were primarily used to solve business problems. Even PCs were in large part a continuation. The internet has also been taken over by and for business. I think we are leaving the era of systems and entering the era of chips. Wifi and WiMax are examples. It is all in the chips. A little box and some transparent software and you are set. WiMax threatens cable, DSL, local copper voice, broadcast TV. DVDs are $40. Its all in the chips and chips are cheap. The biggest use of computers and the network is by our children as they rip off the music industry. The most exciting new platform is the wireless phone. Our homes will not be run by PCs. PCs will be just one device on the wireless home network. I strayed, but I just think the value of what Moore's Law enables is opening a wider and wider lead over the cost to continue Moore's Law.