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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sam Citron who wrote (10562)	7/11/2003 4:18:16 PM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95487

I see what you are getting at but I'm not sure there's such a thing as "a normalized billing level". Billings in mid 95 went up almost 50% over the previous year but then sagged from the middle of 96 through the first qtr of 97. We know that due to market conditions there are going to be "normal" boom/bust cycles. Each cycle has it's own dynamics and there are (imo) too many factors which influence the industry for us to decide where and when to start the "smoothing" process. I'd be very interested if others disagree, as to why they see it differently. I think you might be better off taking an average of the months for a period, say 24 to 36 months and seeing how the data looks at the start of each year or period. For example: here are the (36 month) average monthly semi billings from 1992 through 2002 (taken as an average of the 36 month period from 1990-1992, 1991-1993, etc.) in millions (less, 000) 1992 4541443 1993 5253354 1994 6495529 1995 8764199 1996 10389820 1997 11435877 1998 11018943 1999 11330711 2000 13116059 2001 13713426 2002 13517209 Maybe this will seem interesting to someone.