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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (77317)	7/12/2003 11:09:28 AM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

Just ignore it we are in a NEW born bull market with sky rocketing trade deficit and increasing budget deficits. Many people forget one basic issue trade deficits is not only generating financial trade imbalances - that is the easy part. The real part of trade deficit is increasing budget deficit as a result that of jobs created overseas and not in the US and a growing number of unemployed US workers. An average of $80,000 to $100,000 in trade deficit generated one unemployed person. At a trade deficit of around $42 billion a month or $500 billion a year we denying work to around 5,000,000 people. Presently the US has around 9,500,000 unemployed people according to the BLS of which only a few hundred thousand are counted in the unemployment statistics. bls.gov Since March,unemployment has increased by 913,000..... In June, there were 2.0 million unemployed persons who had been looking for work for 27 weeks or longer, an increase of 410,000 over the year........................ In June, 1.5 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force,little changed from a year earlier. These individuals wanted and were available to work and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed, however, because they did not actively search for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. There were 478,000 discouraged workers in June, up from 342,000 in June 2002. For simple computation 5 million people employed will generate an average of $15,000 x 5*10^6 in tax revenue or 75 billion lower budget deficit further is will add around 40 billion to Social Security funds and Medicare, not to mention saving in unemployment payouts of around $75 billion. All in all it is my estimate that having a balanced trade account will save the US around $200 billion a year and with the multiplier effect bring the budget deficit into surplus. Further trade deficits shift the US budget deficit to overseas tax revenue of the exporting countries which in turn grow more prosperous and will have more funds to invest in military might .... not a positive if we account China for example as a country hugely benefiting from the situation. Bottom line trade deficits are almost as bad a budget deficits by a factor of 1 to 2.5 IMHO...... but it seems no one cares at moment.