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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Wally Mastroly who wrote (2692)7/12/2003 7:25:08 AM
From: Boca_PETE  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 10065
 
Wally M: re:("because of the massive effort being made to reflate the economy now, the Fed and policymakers in Washington will have little ammunition to pull us out of the next recession")

If the scenario in the article comes to be, real estate investment values will plunge as repossessions rise from mortgage debt defaults. Businesses will close as demand sharply drops, corporate debt defaults and unemployment rises. kcmetro.cc.mo.us

But will the government just stand by? Nah - they will want to make a heroic display of heading off this mess. So I would bet that the FED will print money like there is no tomorrow, including the repurchasing of treasury securities issued to cover prior deficits.

The government controls the money printing press. When they run huge fiscal deficits and issue long term debt, eventually that debt will need to be converted through repurchase to the shortest term debt there is - dollar bills - increased money supply. If growth does not pick up enough, increasing money supply translates into increasing inflation.

Don't cry for me, Argentina. evitaperon.org Don't cry for me, USA. The money comes in, and the money goes out. Guns and butter. My sense is that we are setting up for a huge inflation in the future. Those with fixed income investments that are not adjusted for inflation will likely find their savings buys less. We will probably wake up one morning in a crisis and find our money worth a lot less. But if you own your own home, its' value would likely soar and the mortgage debt would be a fixed dollar liability. If you have a floating rate mortgage, OUCH because rates would rise (heaven knows how high). Perhaps the 1970's inflation will look tame in comparison to the one in our future. Unlike the 1970's inflation, this one could start with a huge public debt on the USA's books.

Plan ahead! Stay tuned to economic and political developments.

P