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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: lurqer who wrote (58621)	7/12/2003 9:21:21 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 65232

Luger; I don't see any one talking about "program trading" the other day "program trading was 50% of the volume" --- People don't all run out and buy/sell stocks at the same this up/down thingy is not from regular traders..it's mostly tied to program trading.... A lot of that is put in play by index funds tracking the market.. while others are scalping a spread between the futures and the cash market, the index funds need to use futures to track the market.. I told every one some years ago taht index funds would create a MO MO market..both up and down.. ---- These program trading thingys are blind to any economic p/e or lack of one. They simply buy/sell futures any time the cash spread is ample..when they sell futures they hold they buy stock with that money, then later they sell stock to buy some cheap futures, it all happens very fast..and out of sight of the average trader. --- Why I'm bring this up..at his time is it just occurred to me that the FAIR value..we hear about between the futures and the cash market..with interest rates so low.. CAN MAKE FOR EVEN MORE VOLATILE TRADING.. --- because as interest rates fall it's cheaper and cheaper hold the futures rather than the stock. Greedspams .idea to force people into stock by cutting interest rates doesn't work simply because the futures get cheaper.. Of course stocks will follow the futures...and it all looks like it cancels out..and it does on paper.. however with lower and lower interest..more and more futures are held.. ----- If we do a dump with rates this low, the result will be worse than any we have seen so far as program trading is blind to all except the so called Fair value between the futures and the cash market.. and with more and more futures being held; a slide if it gets started it could easly get out of hand. --- I gave up trying to figure what the long term will turn up..it's all hype and shit short term TA is the only thing I find I can use.and piss on picking stocks.. vtoreport.com Jim