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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: skinowski who wrote (77323)	7/12/2003 4:41:55 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

Very difficult question - but I will venture to offer my 2 cents of developments within the next 1 to 2 years or so. 1. RE bubble will burst badly as RE is overvalued and more so from a demographic trend. 2. For similar reason US stock prices will also falter as more and more will start living from their savings / investments 3. Local governments will have greater budget deficits and restrict services as there will be difficult to increase taxes. Those local governments who will increase taxes will see lower RE prices as a result of an exodus of people. 4. The "quality of life" will trend lower due to lower level of public services which in turn will lower the desirability of coming to the US further accentuating the RE crisis. (similar to 1974 - 1982) 5. Those events will result in fewer jobs and lower employment level which will start a slow grinding vicious cycle that no government could reverse. 6. As a direct result the USD will also trend lower even that there will be some competitive currency devaluation of the "majors". EUR will shine for few years and an unexpected rubble will start catching attention, as Russia will gain some real traction As side effects of the "baad times" .....more unrest in the ME and my hope is that Saudi Arabia will be divided in 3 countries and energy prices will slide by 30% Then, my hope is that those changes will be as gradual as possible and the next generation would be able to pick up the slack. The key to those issue are; China and other SE Asia countries removing the peg to the USD -, India and it's neighbors could also chip in with higher growth and - the destruction of OPEC mainly Saudi Arabia and 30% lower energy prices