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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: lurqer who wrote (58630)	7/13/2003 12:37:48 AM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

I'm keeping one eye on MO MO ( momentum )...up to now it's been in the smaller cap stocks ( thinner float ).. It does seem to be swinging towards larger caps more recently..and that is what it will need to do to get the Big index funds in high gear.. ----- Once the Index funds start buying stocks instead of futures, they wind up having to buy more and more of the Bigger caps..& that's the MO MO of it all. ---- Remember when the market started falling fast it was when they took the Big cap stocks out and started shooting them...once that happened the down side feed on itself..and if the big caps can get going the upside will feed on itself.. All thanks to Index funds and ETFs ( we have so many more now that there is no time in history to compare to. ) But all in all the more index funds we get, the More MO MO will be in the market. ----- When the Big caps get in gear there won't be any stopping the up side for a while, they are almost there but not yet. If they make it there will be plenty of time left to make money ..if they fail..o shit this will make the 3rd time we went up 40% to just turn back down.. Taht would be bad. ---- It seems all he Bulls have short memories..they don't recall the other two; 40% rallies in the bear market.. and they were 40% up without all the juice the fed has recently poured into the market.. ---- I'll take my time , and settle for some fast scalps until I see the BIG CAPS doing the MO MO.. In other words the dynamics of it all dictate that big get bigger in an up market, and get killed in a down market. Jim -- If you have time screen the S&P , for market cap over 150 Billion..then pick the 10 or 12 biggest market cap stocks, & make up and index with them in going back to Oct 10, and one going back to March 10, and maybe even a more recent one, weight them by market cap.. In each index put a token 1 share of of SPY and compare them When those 10 or 12 starts out doing the S&P..then the Indexing MO MO effect has kicked in. --- I've been doing the most dollar traded ones in the NDX against the QQQ but it won't show the same thing., they are still lagging some but have made a lot of gain. siliconinvestor.com ---- I have the top 5 Caps in the S&P index and if it were not for C they would be lagging a lot.. as it is they are 1.4% behind the index from Sept 10th..2002 I need to update taht. So much money is indexed now days that the index funds will dominate the overall trend and because if it's up they must buy more of what is big..if that don't happen then the tail is wagging the dog..and futures are driving the market..however cheap futures based on low interest rates can only lead us up for so long.. Jim Shit I only found 11 in the S&P over 100 Billion, wow how the mighty have fallen..