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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RR who wrote (58643)	7/13/2003 1:12:02 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 65232

Thanx; and below is a link to my new momentum index. I think what I'm trying to say is Futures are a type of margin..and at this time with lower interest rates , the futures and margin gets cheaper.. While stock prices will follow futures to a large degree.. the rub is when the cost of futures drop more of them are bought, but at some point futures can't keep holding the market up. IE check the "relative" volume of futures against the "relative" volume of stock and you'll see what I mean. Any way I did set up a momentum index using the top 15 market cap in the S&P all over 100bil..and backed it up to a start date of 3/11/03 ( the most recent bottom) It's weighted by market cap .. With the large amount of money now in index funds , it creates a momentum (Mo Mo) when that mo mo in index funds gets in gear they buy or sell more $dollars of the BIG caps in order to track the market. So the BIG CAPS as a whole will out run the index in an true up market.. They are gaining but the real mo mo has not yet set in.. so far it's cheap futures pushing the market up..( it's not real healthy as of yet, but it is getting better, however a relapse has almost a 50% chance. ) I don't see any relapse ( if it happens ) getting as bad as it was.. but one can never tell if other complications will mess things up. ----- siliconinvestor.com Tahts the portfolio..it should net more % gain than the SPY that's also in it ; ( for it to confirm the UP momentum via index fund inflows..) & it's not there yet.. Jim