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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: lurqer who wrote (58655)	7/13/2003 4:55:32 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

You got it :-) As for the health of the market, I was saying it has improved.."however" the it I was talking about was the health of the momentum. ---- The over all health of the market I won't touch with a 10 foot pole..as that is a subject of too much controversy. It's more in the eye of the beholder , and most people will use "so called facts" as support of their position but not to illuminate a dark corner. Momentum in and of itself is not really healthy "Long Term" , for the over all market..but it has become a bigger and Bigger part of the market in the last decade and it's cause and effects need to be understood as it is fast replacing the old DOW THEORY.. Money Flow into and out of the biggest INDEX funds is setting up the "trend" of the market more than Funnymentals.. I contend we can see the effect of that flow by looking at the relative effect of the larger caps in an index vs the index. The up trend is "confirmed" when the BIG caps start out performing their index..and a down trend is confirmed when they get took out and shot. Confirmation comes a little late, but heck it sure beats getting hit in the head with a 2X4.. ---- ALL in all we started into a momentum type market back in the 70s with the so called nifty fifty.. "must own stocks"..that died down about 87.. but made a big come back under a new name from the mid to late 90s.. ---- INDEXED mutual funds , are the communistic part of capitalism, but they are a fact of this market and growing..and 85% of the experts can't beat them. Jim BTW a healthy swing up in JNJ and XON in the siliconinvestor.com Will push it ahead of the S&P..