SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: spiral3 who wrote (105271)7/14/2003 9:07:39 AM
From: LindyBill  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 281500
 
Losing Iraq
Fixing problems now.
Jed Babbin - NRO

If the situation in Iraq is allowed to drift for many more months, a decade from now historians will be asking, "Who lost Iraq?" It's less than four months since I reported that our diplomats were planning to throw away what our military was about to win. Back in February, the State Department and CIA successfully opposed the Defense Department's plan to "stand up" a provisional government and turn the about-to-be-freed Iraq over to Iraqis at the earliest opportunity. Instead, they planned to choose the new Iraqi government from among their "friends" in the region. While casualties mount, progress toward establishing a free Iraqi government seems, inexcusably, to be on hold indefinitely.

While State and CIA muddle along, their "friends" are working very hard to make sure democracy never takes root in Iraq. The U.N. continues to hold about $4 billion of the Oil-for-Food program money (in French banks, of course). That money should be paid to the Iraqi people so that they can fund the rebuilding of their nation. But there can't be any pressure on the U.N. to release the money until there's a government to pay it to. Welcome to Catch-22, State Department edition. Think about what the Iraqi people are hearing about the American occupation.

One of the easiest and quickest things we could have done was to establish a free Iraqi news service on television and radio. In urban areas such as Baghdad and Tikrit, nearly every Iraqi home has satellite television, and those that don't have regular TV. The only programming they receive today comes from three sources. First is al-Jazeera (all terrorism, all the time). Next is al-Arabiyah, a station that broadcasts anti-Americanism from Dubai. (When Peter Arnett was axed by CNN, al-Arabiyah hired him, and now broadcasts his reports with an Arab voice-over). Last, and not least, are the regular broadcasts from Iran which don't even require a satellite dish to pick up. Against this propaganda onslaught we are broadcasting: nothing. It's no better in the other media.

The main newspaper is Al Sabah. Its editor ? Ismail Al Zayir ? is anti-Coalition, and his newspaper reflects it. A woman named Shamim Rassam ? who for three decades was one of Saddam's faces to the foreign media ? is now in a prominent position with the "Iraqi Media Network," the only media representing the Coalition in Iraq.

While American soldiers are guarding Iraqi banks and museums, no significant Iraqi police force has been mobilized. Offers from the free Iraqi groups to put thousands of their own troops on the street to maintain order have been rebuffed. One of my Iraqi National Congress sources in Baghdad told me that they could put 5,000 troops on the street within two weeks, and within another six to eight weeks, could have at least 25,000 on the job, relieving the Americans who, in my source's words, are "sitting ducks". The INC wants to put its people on the job under Coalition command, but Paul Bremer ? and his bosses ? rejects the idea. While State marginalizes the INC, it is doing the same for Kurdish leaders. Wednesday's New York Times carried an op-ed by Jalal Talabani and Massoud Barzani, leaders of the two largest Kurdish groups. They wrote, "We need to mark out a clear path toward national elections and representative government, so that Iraqis have some sense of certainty about their political future." Another "roadmap"? Yes, but this one could work if we knock over some of the roadblocks.

First, the president needs to remove the State and CIA apparatchiks that are stalling the creation of the provisional government while they play Clive of India. Talabani and Barzani are absolutely right. We need a public plan to establish Iraqi control of Iraq.

We need to let the Iraqis form a provisional government now, not months or years from now. There was a constitutional government in Iraq before Saddam. There can't be an agreement on a new Constitution immediately, so we should get the free Iraqi leaders to agree to some version of the old one, have them sign it as a temporary document with a fixed expiration date. Then help them sixty craft their new one by that date. Publish a real road map to democracy, and assure them that no matter how long the fugitive Saddamites fight, we won't pull out until Iraq can stand on its own feet. We lost Vietnam for many reasons, but one of the top two was that we published deadlines for our withdrawal. We need to make sure that the enemies of freedom know we won't leave before it's time. And those messages need to get out to Iraq.

Whoever is advising Paul Bremer on managing Iraqi news media should be ordered to spend what little it may take to get a free Iraqi equivalent of MSNBC and Fox on the air right now. The fact that this hasn't happened yet betrays a level of disarray ? or worse ? in Bremer's operation. That television network ? and a radio cousin we should also put on the air ? should broadcast the voices of all the free Iraqi groups. Give them each several hours a week, and let them produce news and talk shows. From those voices and faces, the Iraqi electorate can start educating itself about which of these groups should be elected in whatever free elections follow.

Then get the free Iraqi forces mobilized, and let them police the streets. The sooner we do this, the sooner our people there ? and the Iraqis themselves ? will be safe. Keep the Iraqi police and troops under Coalition command, and keep a close eye on them. This is not a Middle Eastern version of "Vietnamization." The Iraqis are smart, capable people who have at least the memory of freedom. The sooner we let them take responsibility for it ? without withdrawing our forces that guarantee it, for now ? the sooner they will taste it again.

If you notice where most of the violence against Americans is being perpetrated, it's in the corridor from Falujah in the west to Baghdad in the center and north around Tikrit. It is in those areas, which are primarily Sunni, that Saddam's forces melted away during the military action, and are now operating a well-funded guerilla operation. That the violence is concentrated there doesn't mean Iran is innocent, just that the Shia population hasn't yet been armed or sufficiently stirred up by them to add to our problems. Adding to our problems is, of course, the job of the State Department's pals in Saudi Arabia that have sent dozens of Wahabbi mullahs into Iraq. They are now preaching the same hatred and violence against the Coalition that is their normal fare at home. And they are allying themselves ? and the funding they bring ? to the remnants of Saddam's regime. Their goal is not to restore Saddam. It is ? as it has always been ? to prevent democracy from taking hold on Saudi Arabia's border.

We need to be more aggressive about capturing and holding prisoners. When members of the former Republican Guard or anyone operating against Coalition forces are caught, they need to be held indefinitely. Moreover, anyone ? including the Saudi mullahs ? who are identified as preaching violence against the Coalition forces should join them in prison. None of these prisoners should be released until there is the new government takes custody of them and determine their fate.

Last, and certainly not least, we need to rebuff all the voices of "pragmatism" that want us to turn Iraq over to the U.N. The U.N. is hopelessly corrupt, both as to confronting terrorism and as to the money it holds that belongs to the people of Iraq. The people of Iraq deserve better than to become serfs of the U.N., or to the French and German companies salivating at the prospect of reentering Iraq. We should establish the Iraqi provisional government and demand that the money the U.N. holds be turned over to it. Otherwise, we should pay the $4 billion ourselves, and take it out of our U.N. "dues." It would be a bargain on both ends.

? NRO Contributor Jed Babbin was a deputy undersecretary of defense in the first Bush administration, and is now an MSNBC military analyst. He is the author of the novel Legacy of Valor.
nationalreview.com



To: spiral3 who wrote (105271)7/16/2003 3:57:19 AM
From: spiral3  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 281500
 
it just keeps getting more and more contradictory.

fwiw, here is Rumsfelds response, to the whereabouts of WMD and the claims from ex Intelligence officials as to the strength of the connection between al Queda and Sadam. The claims I’m talking about are here: Message 19107218

link for the full transcript - the section extracted below, starts a ways through
defenselink.mil

STEPHANOPOULOS: On the broader subject of weapons of mass destruction, the last time you appeared on the show -- I think it was March 30th -- we talked about why no weapons had been found. It was about three weeks into the war, and here is what you said. I want you totake a look at it.

(previously taped segment)

RUMSFELD: The area in the South and the West and the North that coalition forces control is substantial. It happens not to be the area where weapons of mass destruction were dispersed. We know where they are. They are in the area around Tikrit and Baghdad and East, West, South, and North somewhat.

(end of taped segment)

STEPHANOPOULOS: You said, "We know where they are." Have those sites where you thought the weapons of mass destruction were --have those been inspected now?

RUMSFELD: I probably should have said we know where they were instead of we know where they are. At that moment, the intelligence community said these are "x" number of suspect sites, meaning we have reason to believe that they might be in these various locations -- numbers of hundreds --

STEPHANOPOULOS: -- but at that time, on March 30th, you believed the weapons were there?

RUMSFELD: Exactly. We did believe that, and they may have been there. We've been out looking at those sites, and -- some of those sites -- and have gone through some fraction of them. It takes a long time. It's an enormously big country and, as you'll recall, the one individual came in and took the investigators into his backyard near a rosebush, dug down, and found things that had been buried there for years with respect to the Iraqi nuclear program, and you can imagine -- how would anyone have known that except for the person who buried them coming in and saying, "Here they are." So what the Iraqi survey group is now doing is they are, instead of running around to all these suspect sites that we had, where we believed they were, they are instead going through the interrogation process with these people and trying to find people who can tell us where they are.

STEPHANOPOULOS: So just on that they haven't looked at every one of those sites yet?

RUMSFELD: No, they have not.

STEPHANOPOULOS: But, so far, they have found no weapons?

RUMSFELD: I wouldn't say that.

STEPHANOPOULOS: You wouldn't say that?

RUMSFELD: No.

STEPHANOPOULOS: They've found weapons?

RUMSFELD: They have found things -- they have not found things that when one aggregates them and looks at them that they would say, "Aha, there it is," but they are finding things, and then what they do is, they take the materials, and they send them to several different laboratories to be tested. Then it comes back, and it's not what you thought it might be. They send some more out, and it comes back, and it's a dual use. It could be this or it could be that -- something civilian or something military, and that process just -- we just have to be patient.
It's been 10 weeks now. We've got a wonderful team of people working on the problems. They are intelligent, they are serious, they are purposeful, and they are going to keep looking, and there isn't anyone who has looked at all the intelligence, that I know of, who doesn't believe that the intelligence community was correct.

STEPHANOPOULOS: But you say that they may have been there on March 30th.

SECRETARY RUMSFELD: They can be moved.

STEPHANOPOULOS: You think they could have been moved?

RUMSFELD: Of course, they can be moved.

STEPHANOPOULOS: Well, if that's true –

RUMSFELD: -- we know they had mobile capabilities, and think of the lethality of biological or chemical weapons and what a relatively small amount can be easily moved and buried -- or transported somewhere.

STEPHANOPOULOS: If that's true, couldn't the war then, the military operation, have invoked your worst fear -- that these weapons would be moved and get in the hands of terrorists?

RUMSFELD: They could have, and they still could, which is the reason you need to find them.

STEPHANOPOULOS: So you believe that weapons could have been, say, taken out of the country and sold to Al Qaeda?

RUMSFELD: I'm not going to say that. I think they could have been moved. They could have been moved within the country or somewhere else but, basically, we don't know, and we intend to find out, and I believe we will find out.

MR. STEPHANOPOULOS: Does that show a failure, then, of the Defense Department, and it was your responsibility to secure the sites or failure to secure those sites?

RUMSFELD: No, I mean, how can you secure a site that's -- sites in a country the size of California that has open borders, porous borders, people moving in and out? Even today, people move in and out. It's not possible to secure every single site, and what one has to do is go in and win the war, throw out the regime, and then as rapidly as possible, shift that fighting force into a presence force and try to provide security in the country. Think of all the things that -- the bad things that didn't happen. There was not a big humanitarian crisis; there was not enormous -- tens of thousands -- of refugees fleeing the country; there was not enormous destruction to the infrastructure; the dams were not broken and flooding the people; the weapons of mass destruction were not used, even though they had chemical weapons suits we found in Southern Iraq ready to be used.

STEPHANOPOULOS: But can you be certain that they had these weapons ready to be used. You're not certain of that.

RUMSFELD: I didn't say that. I said we found the suits that an Iraqi would wear, were they going to use those weapons or deal in that kind of a conflict. We had ours, as well. Our people were all equipped with those kinds of protected devices. They had to be, because we were convinced and remain convinced, that they had that capability. We know this from 12 years -- the U.N. has said so; the defectors have said so; all the intelligence community; the debate in the U.N. wasn't whether they had chemical/biological or a nuclear -- we never said they had a nuclear weapon -- we said they had a nuclear program. That was never any debate. The debate was -- how long should you wait after they violate 17 U.N. resolutions before you enforce those resolutions?

STEPHANOPOULOS: You mention now that the teams are talking to scientists. Journalists have talked to some of these scientists as well, and I want to show you something from the "New Republic." A journalist named Bob Drogin has interviewed a number of the Iraqi scientists, and here is what he wrote. He said, "The Iraqi scientists I met insist that the combination of U.S. bombing, U.N. inspections, disarmament efforts, unilateral destruction by Iraqi officials, and stiff U.N. sanctions had, indeed, eliminated Saddam's illicit weapons in the mid-90s.
Ultimately, the scientists and others say Saddam may have feared that admitting his WMD were gone would have shown a weakness that could have threatened his hold on power." Is that what the scientists are telling the U.S. teams?

RUMSFELD: I don't know. I'm sure there are a lot of scientists, a lot of interrogations. I don't doubt for a minute that some people are saying that. Others have done what I said -- taken you to a backyard under a rosebush and said, "I was told not to destroy it, I was told to bury it and
keep it and not let anyone know about it." Now, where is the truth? Maybe they're both true.

STEPHANOPOULOS: How would that be?

RUMSFELD: Well, there would be some people who believe that they were told that they were going to destroy them and others that were told -- bury this, hide it, spread it around, take it into private residences, get the documentation dispersed so they can't know where it is. You could have one person told one thing and another --

STEPHANOPOULOS: -- but the theory he is talking about there -- is it plausible that perhaps Saddam Hussein, by the time the war began, really didn't have an arsenal of weapons of mass destruction?

RUMSFELD: I think it's unlikely, and I'll tell you why. It seems to me that he could have had billions and billions of dollars, of revenues from his oil lifting. If he had wanted to do what other countries did, what Kazakhstan did, and say, "Come in here, inspect." Instead, what he did was they hid, they deceived, they lied, they filed a fraudulent report that everyone knew was not true. There wasn't any debate up in the U.N. about whether his report was fraudulent. Why would he do that? Why would he give away billions and billions and billions of dollars instead of doing what other countries have done and say, "Come on in."

STEPHANOPOULOS: Well, it could be for the reason those scientists said -- because he didn't want to show weakness. But you say, in the end, it's unlikely that he didn't have an arsenal but not impossible?

RUMSFELD: You know, until we have done this job -- we've been there 10 weeks, less than 10 weeks, I guess -- until we've done this job and talked to enough people and been through it, we won't know precisely what we'll find. I believe that the intelligence community was correct; that he had these capabilities, and that -- we know he's used them in the past. It's not like this is some innocent. He is a person who has used chemical weapons on his own people as well as his neighbors.

STEPHANOPOULOS: Let me ask you about links to Al Qaeda. Do you still believe the intelligence that showed Iraq's links to Al Qaeda is bulletproof?

RUMSFELD: I think that the information we had, over a period of time, that I cited, that the intelligence community gave to me, and I read as opposed to ad-libbing, was correct. It was carefully stated. One argument was that Iraq was secular and Al Qaeda was religiously motivated and therefore they wouldn't link. I mean, the facts are we've seen accommodations take place in the world where people who don't agree end up cooperating because they have a common enemy.

STEPHANOPOULOS: But several Al Qaeda operatives who were in custody have said that Osama bin Laden rejected any alliance with Saddam Hussein.

RUMSFELD: And there is intelligence information that suggested there were interactions between Iraq and Al Qaeda, and those are the ones that I cited that the intelligence community provided to me to be cited publicly.

STEPHANOPOULOS: There are two former intelligence officials quoted in the Associated Press today saying there was no significant pattern of cooperation that were working in the intelligence community at the time of this administration, and a U.N. committee has also said they have found no evidence. Do you dismiss their doubts?

RUMSFELD: I don't dismiss them. How did you phrase that they said there was no what? No significant --

STEPHANOPOULOS: -- there was no significant pattern of cooperation.

RUMSFELD: Well, that may be, but there were pieces of indications of cooperation. I don't know what significant pattern -- I'm not going to say that they are incorrect nor can anyone say what I said is incorrect, which was provided by the Central Intelligence Agency.