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To: pogbull who wrote (5098)	7/14/2003 4:45:19 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 5423

yes, Roach's comments were in his essay from last week exact same quote on gold "he would think seriously about putting a 'nontrivial portion' of his portfolio into precious metals like gold" my words: when the 2ndHalf Recovery shows up more than nothing, but 1/3-rd the strength as hoped and expected stocks will have a difficult autumn and winter here is a great quote from Doug Noland of Prudent Bear he mentions the effects of all this Fed Monetization "And this morning's huge Trade Deficit indicates clearly that rampant domestic Credit Inflation persistently manifests into ballooning foreign liabilities with minimal benefit to domestic goods-producing industries." prudentbear.com my interpretation: Fed Monetization increase = Consumer Credit increase = China Trade Surplus increase as the Fed increases the flow from the monetary spigot, it will not help the domestic economy instead, it will pump up consumption, debt, and trade gaps oy oy oy nobody seems to be seeing this in the mainstream NOBODY / jim

To: pogbull who wrote (5098)	7/16/2003 12:00:06 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 5423

we now have critical juncture in USTBonds and USTNotes the TENS yield just shot above its 200day MovAvg this is hugely significant note the rise above the trendline, which must be drawn by your eye finance.yahoo.com^TNX&d=c&k=c1&a=v&p=s&t=2y&l=on&z=m&q=l also, the USDollar has run up against to upper rail to its trend channel check it out stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyyay[df][pb50!d20,2!f][vc60][iUb14!Uh15,5,5]&pref=G bonds have fed stocks for a couple months lately stocks have anticipated a hefty rise in earnings and a 2ndHalf Recovery I doubt either earnings or the recovery will be much to write mom at home about my expectoration is for TENS yield to be steady in the 3.9-4.1% for a few months this would complete a Head & Shoulders rising pattern on rates then by spring, we will see rising TENS yield to the 4.5-4.8% range which will kill real estate's so-called bull market, which is nothing more than a Fed-induced bubble the risk already incurred is the halt of the refi movement real estate will probably stall in a big way here / jim