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To: MythMan who wrote (249956)	7/14/2003 4:20:47 PM
From: Lucretius	Respond to of 436258

F*CK him and here, read the whole thing Be Careful With the 'Bubble' Label By James J. Cramer 07/14/2003 04:07 PM EDT Click here for more stories by James J. Cramer Tech, that's a bubble. Intel's (INTC:Nasdaq - news - commentary - research - analysis) a bubble. Microsoft's (MSFT:Nasdaq - news - commentary - research - analysis) a bubble. KLA-Tencor's (KLAC:Nasdaq - news - commentary - research - analysis) a bubble. So's Novellus (NVLS:Nasdaq - news - commentary - research - analysis). Lotta bubbles out there. It's bubble-licious! I think it is time to redefine what we consider to be a bubble. I am adamant that eBay (EBAY:Nasdaq - news - commentary - research - analysis) and Amazon (AMZN:Nasdaq - news - commentary - research - analysis) are bubbles. I am adamant that Intel, Microsoft, KLA-Tencor and Novellus aren't bubbles. They are simply trading up on expectations that the earnings estimates could be remarkably low for next year's numbers. I started buying Intel the moment that Tom Kurlak started using his $1 per share earnings estimate for next year when the stock was at $18. I did that not because I thought Intel was going to be in a bubble, but because I figured that it could be cheap on trough earnings. The semi equipment stocks could be cheap on trough earnings, too, although I don't believe it so I don't own any of them; But the point here is that no one really knows how to value trough earnings. No one really knows what the peak of the cycle might look like. It is entirely possible that Intel could do the big number and the stock will look remarkably cheap. Consider this: Until the heyday, Cisco (CSCO:Nasdaq - news - commentary - research - analysis) always looked expensive. Then its business exploded, and it turned out to be "cheap" in the out years. I don't think eBay or Amazon will turn out to be cheap in the out years; those are just a malfunctioning market for the reasons I talked about last week. But these other stocks just might turn out to be cheap if the economy explodes, and there are many players out there who believe it will. So let's limit the "bubble" talk and get a little constructive. Let's top trying to define everything as a bubble. Let's recognize that there are unknowns, such as how powerful the recovery will be. And let's think twice before we decide that the whole thing is one big joke designed to separate us from our money. Random musings: A lot of people are asking me how I knew about Gilead (GILD:Nasdaq - news - commentary - research - analysis) for my Action Alerts PLUS account. The answer is simple: It was the stock I heard the most talk about at our hedge fund conference in May. I don't think people realize how much money was made just by taking notes at that conference. When I invite you to come down next year, you'd better have a darned good reason for not going!