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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Spekulatius who wrote (17412)	7/15/2003 9:28:40 PM
From: Spekulatius	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78597

Market rant - LT bonds have been whacked badly today after Greenspans speech and it seems that the yields have begun to increase again. On the other side , I read in the WSJ that mutual funds and hedge funds have been buying the stocks with the highest beta's (more or less regardless of the underlying fundamentals) to get a piece of the action. This situation seems to be very much like 1999 and I wonder how this can end anything but badly. I will continue to keep a high cash position (75% in my trading account) and wait for things going the way they are meant to be, IMO. I think my consumer stalwarts NSRGY and UL will outperform the market and I am ready to buy more after my 4 week cooldown period after the first purchase.

To: Spekulatius who wrote (17412)	7/18/2003 2:40:22 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78597

re: NSRGY: Does look reasonably priced here imo. Organic revenue growth is slow (which seems to me to be typical of large food purveyors). Growth through acquisitions is a favored business strategy. They seem to have the size/scope/resources to make these acquisitions work out. Hard to get info. on this company. (Even quote/volume info) Website you mentioned seems to have most info. NSRGY looks like a better pick than my CSG. I'll keep CSG for now and start an exploratory position in NSRGY. Paul Senior

To: Spekulatius who wrote (17412)	8/8/2010 4:13:17 PM
From: Spekulatius	Respond to of 78597

re NSRGY - interesting to go back and look at how some LT holdings are doing. I still have those shares from the purchase done in 2003. The stocks was purchased in Euro and has increased by 110% in 7 years. if I calculate the dividend yield in Euro - my purchase price in CHF was 17.62 Euro and the shares pay 1.11 Euro (1.6 CHF/1.435) are about 6.2% on my purchase price. If I add the dividend yield to my appreciation, I get and IRR of about 14%/year. This is not enough to make someone rich of course. Currently the PE ratio seems to be about 15.5 so it's a little bit more expensive than it was in 2003. They still have the L'Oreal stake that I have mentioned back then. I think there is a good chance that a buyer at current levels will make a 10% annualized return on his investment, including dividends. Well I also have a LT investment in RBS, purchased in 2007. It lost about 90% of it's value. At least I did not participate with the capital raises. Survivorship bias is powerful. I keep the few stub stocks in my account just as a reminder for my mistake, maybe that way they will pay for itself some day.